Daily Score Blog

World Wildlife Fund has a helpful 8-page position statement that outlines the key features of the European Union's cap and trade program (called the Emissions Trading Scheme, or ETS for short.) It does a nice job of hitting on the central mistakes that Europe has made: over-allocation; windfall profits to polluters; and a rickety offsets program.

Unfortunately, the document is not really written for beginners. But folks need more access to good information about Europe's carbon trading program, and I haven't encountered many other good concise descriptions of the ETS. If readers know of any, please let me know.

Idaho feels the fuel price pinch:

Idaho fuel tax revenue declined for the first time in six years, as drivers faced with $4 per gallon gasoline shunned their cars ...

Suzanne Schaefer, a lobbyist for the Idaho Petroleum Marketers & Convenience Store Association, "I even spotted a hybrid in Soda Springs. That's not natural."

Based on state data, Idaho gas consumption fell over 6% in the first part of 2008, compared with the comparable period in the previous year. After accounting for population growth, it's a decline of well over 8 percent per person in a single year. That's a big deal.  If current trends continue for the rest of the year, Idaho residents will use less gasoline per capita in 2008 than in any year since 1963.

Washington's trends are in the same direction, though not quite as dramatic.  Total gas consumption is down a percent or two this year, even as population has risen.  Measured per person, Washington's gas consumption has fallen 13 percent since 1999, and are as low as they've been since 1967.

More reason to think that, when it comes to conservation, people pay more attention to prices than to moralizing.

Via Yglesias, here's a very intriguing article arguing that cost-benefit analysis doesn't actually make much sense for some environmental issues. (It's authored by by Frank Ackerman and Lisa Heinzerling.)

I'm not sure I'm persuaded by every element in their argument but, it does makes some extremely important points. For example, on the much-debated subject of "discounting":

Second, the use of discounting systematically and improperly downgrades the importance of environmental regulation. While discounting makes sense in comparing alternative financial investments, it cannot reasonably be used to make a choice between preventing harms to present generations and preventing similar harms to future generations. Nor can discounting reasonably be used even to make a choice between harms to the current generation; choosing between preventing an automobile fatality and a cancer death does not turn on prevailing rates of return on financial investments. In addition, discounting tends to trivialize long-term environmental risks, minimizing the very real threat our society faces from potential catastrophes and irreversible environmental harms, such as those posed by global warming and nuclear waste.

If you're into environmental economics, it really is worth a look.

More like this please. It's pretty well known that official measures of poverty are inaccurate relics. Among other problems, they do things like this:

For the federal government, the concept of poverty is simple. If a typical family of four earns less than $21,100 a year, they're poor. If a single working woman makes less than $10,787, she's in poverty. It doesn't matter whether these people live in Omaha, Neb., where the average apartment rents for $600 a month, or in New York City, where a similar apartment costs $1,600 a month.

Conventional poverty measurements systematically discriminate against places with a high cost of living -- and that usually means cities. So it's encouraging to see New York seize the initiative to develop a more realistic assessment.

As the Christian Science Monitor reports:

New York's new poverty measurement takes into account rent, utility fees, food costs, clothing costs, and also includes other benefits for low-income families and individuals like Section 8 housing vouchers and food stamps. The change is expected to boost the city's poverty rate from 19 percent to 23 percent. That would mean 30,000 more people would qualify for assistance programs.

That's exactly as it should be. We need a more accurate accounting of the true costs (as well as the available benefits) of living in cities.

Forget the showdown between the United States and China, the real battle was between the Bahamas and Iceland.

Certainy nobody reported the Olympics that way, but isn't there something unfair about tallying medals without regard to population? China's athletes, drawn from a pool of 1.3 billion people, match up against American athletes from a pool about one-quarter as big. Though of course we Americans love to lionize our athletic prowess -- measured in total medals won -- against nations only a fraction of our size.

I mean, is it really fair to compare the medal count between, say, 300 million Americans and 30 million Canadians? Not hardly. In fact, the Olympics exemplify our tendency to measure the wrong thing.

When you factor in population, places like Germany and Great Britain don't matter nearly so much as places like Armenia and Mongolia. Or consider Jamaica, which boasts only 2.7 million souls but still managed to bring home 11 medals, including 6 golds. That means Jamaicans netted more than 4 medals for every million residents. None of the big powerhouse countries came even close to that mark. The United States, by contrast, captured only a single medal for every 3 million citizens.

I couldn't help myself. I crunched the per capita numbers for every country that won an Olympic medal in Beijing. Here are the top 20:

Who would have guessed that this is the roster of champions? (As it turns out, my colleague Clark would have. He reminds me that he wrote a post on this very subject four years ago! Sure, the topic isn't exactly relevant to this blog, it's just one of those measurement issues that tend to drive us a little bonkers.)

Below the jump, the full standings (and more complete data) for every country that won a medal. Also, some caveats.

It’s summer after all, and we all have some spare reading time. With almost 30 posts that may be new to you, there’s enough material to fritter away at least a day. Check out posts that are still as fresh and poignant as ever (entire series here):

• Troubles and triumphs with backyard renovations.

• To be local or to be organic? That is the question.

• Why 100 MPG wonder cars don’t matter much.

• Unspamming snail mail.

I'm a bit late on this, but it's still worth mentioning. Via the NY Times:

Traffic deaths in the United States declined last year, reaching the lowest level in more than a decade, the government reported Thursday. Some 41,059 people were killed in highway crashes, down by more than 1,600 from 2006. It was the fewest number of highway deaths in a year since 1994, when 40,716 people were killed.

You can't attribute the entirety of the decline to reduced driving: law enforcement and vehicle safety both play important roles. But driving less and slower driving matter a lot too. So while I've complained that the recent gas price spike is mostly bad news, this definitely qualified as a silver lining:

Adrian Lund, president of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, said the sluggish economy was likely a factor in the declines. He predicted that the combination of a slowing economy and gas prices approaching $4 a gallon throughout the U.S. could lead to further reductions in highway deaths in 2008. Many states have reported double-digit drops in fatalities during the first part of this year.

Nice to hear.

But still: does anyone else find it appalling that more than 40,000 people die on American roads every year? Every time I see these figures, I'm shocked.

A single year of driving yields 10 times as many American dead as five years of war in Iraq.

This is the eighth in a short series of posts that explain some important but often overlooked policy issues in the Western Climate Initiative -- the West's regional cap-and-trade system. (Much to readers' delight, this is the last installment I'm planning to write.)

You can't talk about regional cap and trade very long before someone brings up the subject of pre-emption. What happens if the federal government creates a national cap and trade program? Would the regional programs disappear? And if so, why bother working on them?

First, let's get one thing straight: no one knows what will happen.

Seriously. No one has any idea. And that includes me.

No matter how confidently anybody expresses an opinion on pre-emption, you can rest assured that it's just speculation. And that uncertainty is precisely why it's so important to work on regional programs like WCI: regional cap and trade is what we've got. There's simply no guarantee we'll have a federal alternative soon.

Sure, we know that a new president will be elected in November. But while both John McCain and Barack Obama have proposals for a national cap and trade program, it is hardly a foregone conclusion that a serious policy will emerge intact in the near future. Here are a few ways that things could play out:

I'm always fascinated by the "1 percent solutions" to energy. It seems to me that in order to address both climate change and fossil fuel dependence, we'll need a few big structural changes, but we'll also need a lot of 1 percent solutions -- and maybe a bunch of quarter-percent solutions too. And the advantage of the 1 percent solutions is that they're often exceedingly easy; and so cheap that they actually put money in your pocket.

So I enjoyed Cindy Skrzycki's column this morning on low rolling resistance tires:

A study by the National Academies of Science in 2006 concluded it was feasible to reduce rolling resistance by 10 percent. This would increase the fuel economy of vehicles by 1 percent to 2 percent, saving up to 2 billion gallons of gasoline and diesel annually. Michelin said that over the past 15 years its energy-saving tires have reduced fuel consumption worldwide by about 2.38 billion gallons, compared with conventional tires.

Easy, right? The problem is, there's very little opportunity for consumers to evaluate the fuel-efficiency of tires (as Clark once discovered). Not only is there no rating system in place, but a national standard has actually been banned by Congress since 1996.

No kidding:

The congressional ban, first passed in 1996, said there could be no federal rule adding to existing grading standards that would require a certain level of fuel efficiency.

A 1998 Senate report explained that the prohibition covered "any rulemaking which would require that passenger car tires be labeled to indicate their low rolling resistance, or fuel-economy characteristics."

That's very helpful. Thanks, Congress.

Luckily, there's good news just around the corner. Congress has shifted gears and is now demanding a consumer-information program in place by next year. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration should have a rule in place by the end of 2009, though it's not clear when consumers will actually see the information in a standardized way.

In light of these recent alerts and violations, I was reminded of a visual we put together a while ago depicting smog patterns in the Puget Sound area. Check it out (click here or on the image to see the flash version):

Interesting article:  Alan Ehrenhalt argues in The New Republic that cities throughout North America are undergoing a "demographic inversion," in which the center city is once again becoming home to the well-off rather than the poor.

Chicago is gradually coming to resemble a traditional European city--Vienna or Paris in the nineteenth century, or, for that matter, Paris today. The poor and the newcomers are living on the outskirts. The people who live near the center--some of them black or Hispanic but most of them white--are those who can afford to do so.

That certainly rings true for Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver, too.  In fact, Ehrenhalt discusses Vancouver, with its "forest of slender, green, condo skyscrapers," at some length.  So apparently, the problems of urban housing affordability aren't just local ones; they're international in scope. (At least we're in good company.)

The article also makes a trenchant observation: the recent North American view of the city as a dumping ground for people who are too poor to escape is something of a historical anomaly.  More typically, cities have been magnets for wealth, not repositories for the impoverished.  Recent trends are, as much as anything else, a return to historic norms. 

Still, Ehrenhalt argues that the urban resurgence is being driven by some ahistorical demographic shifts:  later childbearing, professional couples choosing fewer (or no) kids, more empty nesters in good health.  Those kinds of shifts are likely to persist -- which will mean plenty more people will opt for urbanity over suburban living.  And high demand will likely mean higher prices for homes close to downtown.

So my question in all of this is:  given that people with lots of disposable income are choosing to move closer to downtown, is there a good way -- or, indeed, any way -- to retain decent, affordable housing for middle- and lower-income folks close to downtown jobs? 

When it comes to global warming, 80 percent of American voters across the country believe it’s happening and poses a threat to future generations. 74 percent support the idea of a cap and trade system for carbon emissions; 57 percent say that they would still support a cap and trade system even if it meant a $10 increase in their monthly electricity bill. A third of Americans say that taking unilateral action on global warming would help the US economy. That’s a dead heat with those who say global warming-reducing measures would damage the economy (32 percent).

So, people are starting to see economic potential that’s possible with smart climate policy. In the last few days, the news has been full of articles about Northwest companies and communities investigating new industries like solar and wind.

Here's an intriguing idea from California: Carbon Share. It's basically a version of Cap and Dividend (aka Skytrust) but with a twist. Instead of auctioning carbon allowances to polluters and then returning the proceeds to citizens, Carbon Share just distributes the allowances directly to citizens. Individuals can then cash in the allowances at banks or brokerages -- and the financial houses would put the permits into circulation for polluters to purchase.

I worry a bit about creating too much uncertainty for the regulated businesses. Still, it's an intriguing idea, in part because it essentially cuts out the government's role in handling the money. It's worth checking out.

John Wihbey at the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media provides a reality check about how poll questions about drilling have been framed. For example, he points out (quoting Wall Street Journal energy reporter and blogger Keith Johnson), that when poll questions offer a choice between drilling and more investment in alternative energy, alternative energy usually comes out ahead. But lots of polls don't give respondents the range of options.

Over the weekend, a good column by Thomas Friedman in the NY Times about Denmark's success in insulating itself from high prices. I won't try to reprise it here, but just want to highlight a critically important point:

“I have observed that in all other countries, including in America, people are complaining about how prices of [gasoline] are going up,” Denmark’s prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, told me. “The cure is not to reduce the price, but, on the contrary, to raise it even higher to break our addiction to oil. We are going to introduce a new tax reform in the direction of even higher taxation on energy and the revenue generated on that will be used to cut taxes on personal income — so we will improve incentives to work and improve incentives to save energy and develop renewable energy.”

Friedman doesn't mention this, but Rasmussen heads a right-of-center coalition government. He's not a lefty; he's a fiscal conservative who is using a tax-shifting technique to continue a long-term strategy of making Denmark one of the most energy efficient economies on earth. As a consequence, skyrocketing energy prices are annoying to Denmark's economy, but they aren't devastating.

The problem, of course, is that to follow Denmark's lead, we North Americans will have to get over our congenital aversion to higher energy prices.

After reading Friedman's column, I turned on the Olympics last night. During the commercial breaks I was treated to ads from both Washington's governor and her challenger -- each accusing the other of "raising the gas tax" as if this were the worst imagineable sin. Unless I'm mistaken, that big scary tax hike was the recent "nickel tax," equal to a whopping 1.3% of the current retail price of gasoline.

Sigh.