Backgrounder: New population numbers for Washington State

Washington's population could double in less than fifty years

Washington's population could double in less than fifty years, according to new research from Sightline Institute.

This analysis--by Seattle research center Sightline Institute--provides background on the Washington Office of Financial Management's population estimates for the year ending April 1, 2005 for the state and each of its localities, released on June 28, 2005. (See http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/april1/index.htm.). Please call Elisa Murray if you would like an interview or more information with a Sightline Institute researcher.

88,600 new Washingtonians: The new state figures showed that the state added 88,600 new residents between April 1, 2004 and April 1, 2005, increasing the total population of the state to 6.26 million residents.

- The pace of population growth this past year-1.4 percent-is slower than the increases seen during most of the 1990s, but is an acceleration from the previous three years.

- In 2002-2003, population growth rates hit a 20-year low, due to a confluence of three trends: a slow economy attracted few new residents; the unusually small "baby bust" generation born in the 1970s was reaching its reproductive peak; and Washington women were continuing a longstanding trend of choosing smaller families and having children later in life.

The state's population could double in less than 50 years: Today's rate of population increase is below the torrid pace of the early 1990s-when annual population growth reached 3.2 percent-but it still represents rapid growth:

- Over the past three years the state added 214,000 new residents-more than enough to fill a city the size of Spokane or Tacoma.

- If this population growth rate is maintained, Washington's population will double (reaching 12.5 million residents) by the time today's newborns reach the age of 49.

A rosier economy drew new residents: Net migration-the number moving into the state, minus the number moving out-accounted for about three-fifths of last year's growth, or roughly 51,900 new residents.

- This is the highest net migration figure since 1997.

- Historically, in-migration has come in waves, corresponding to economic cycles. A stronger job market and rosier economic outlook in the past year probably drew many new residents, compared with the 2002-2004 period.

The untold story--natural increase and unintended pregnancies: Natural increase, the number of births minus the number of deaths, accounted for 36,700 new residents last year, about two-fifths of the state's total population increase.

- Unlike migration, natural increase is slow and steady. Every year for the past two decades, natural increase has added between 34,000 and 43,000 new residents to the state. Since the early 1950s, about half of all population growth in the state has come from natural increase.

- The untold story of population growth in the state is unintended pregnancies, which account for nearly 40 percent of all pregnancies in Washington state: Roughly one in 8 births is unwanted at conception; and roughly another 25 percent come earlier than the parents wish.
Teen birthrate at all-time low: In good news, teen birthrates in the state are at, or at least near, their all-time low, about 30 births per 1,000 teenaged women.

- Still, the Washington teen birthrate is nearly three times higher than British Columbia's rate (10.5 births per 1,000 teenaged women in 2004).

Birthrate increasing: The "crude" birth rate-the total number of births, divided by the number of women between the ages of 15 and 44-remained low in historic terms, but has increased since the recent low of 2003.

- The "echo boom" generation-the children of the baby boomers-are entering their most fertile years, just as members of the unusually small "baby bust" generation born in the early-to-mid 1970s are aging past their reproductive peak.

- Expect to see increases in crude birth rates over the next few years, as the "baby bust" generation continues to age.

Steps to curb teen birthrates and unintended pregnancies: These include increasing access to emergency contraception and family planning services, and reducing poverty. For more information, see Sightline's fact sheet on regional population solutions here.

More information:

Office of Financial Management's population figures

Cascadia Scorecard population indicator

Sightline Institute is a Seattle-based research and communication center that monitors regional progress through its Cascadia Scorecard project. More information is available at www.sightline.org.