As the Northwest prepares major highway projects–the replacement I-5 bridge of the Columbia River, the replacement SR 520 bridge across Lake Washington, and Seattle’s deep-bore tunnel–tolling has an increasingly significant role to play in project financing.
Yet a review of the literature shows that when it comes to predicting traffic volumes and revenue from newly-tolled roads, official projections are often overly-optimistic. This is especially true of highways with un-tolled alternative routes nearby.
While previous forecasts don’t ensure current projects will fall into the same traps, it’s clear that toll predictions merit a very close look.
Toll Avoidance and Transportation FundingPublished: September 20, 2011