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Feds Say: Traffic Is Declining

The latest traffic figures from the Federal Highway Administration offer a small surprise: through November of 2011, year-to-date vehicle travel in the U.S. hit its lowest level since 2003.

As you may recall, traffic plummeted in 2008—back when the economy hit the skids, even as gas prices shot through the roof.  But most transportation analysts (including me) expected that traffic would resume its upward trajectory as the economy rebounded and population grew. Perhaps that will still happen, someday. But so far, the numbers are telling a different story: appetite for car travel in the US appears to be flattening out.

ODOT Running on Empty

Earlier this week I heaped scorn on the Washington State Department of Transportation’s penchant for serving up B.S.  Given how harsh I was, I figure it’s my duty to point out when a Northwest transportation agency tells it like it really is.

So here’s a remarkably straight scoop from the Oregon DOT — essentially admitting that ODOT is running out of money.  In a nutshell, the agency has looked at traffic volume and gas tax revenue trends, along with its debt service commitments, and has concluded it will have to cut its construction budget by 50 percent by 2015. And what’s especially admirable is that they back up their gloomy forecast with real numbers and clear-eyed analysis, not spin.

Calling B.S. on WSDOT

Photo: Flickr user resiak

An essay by philosopher Harry Frankfurt, first published in the mid-1980s but re-released in book form in 2005, offered what was perhaps the first serious analysis of a topic near and dear to any political observer’s heart: bullshit. Frankfurt argues that bullshit differs from lies in one important way. The liar believes that there IS such a thing as the truth: it’s the thing that the lie is designed to conceal. In contrast, a bullshitter has no regard for the very idea of truth. To a true bullshit artist, words are little more than a tool to achieve some arbitrary purpose — to seem informed, for example, or to manipulate other people so that they’ll do what you want them to. Whether words are true or false is beside the point; all that matters to the bullshitter is the effect that his or her words achieve.

Frankfurt’s essay came to mind when I read a WSDOT spokesperson’s recent article about traffic growth on the SR-520 bridge across Lake Washington. The spokesperson was responding, indirectly, to one of my previous posts pointing out that WSDOT data shows zero traffic growth across the SR 520 bridge for the last 15 years.  Here’s his rebuttal:

[Sightline’s] analysis didn’t capture a complete picture of traffic on the corridor. Its analysis starts in 1996, the peak year of growth and traffic over the last 25 years, and continued through 2010, capturing the dot-com bust between 2000 and 2003 and the subsequent national recession, both with significant traffic effects in this region.

In contrast, the Washington State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT) longer view of traffic data on the SR 520 bridge begins in 1984 and projects to the year 2030, capturing nearly 30 years of historical data to produce a more accurate trend. Traffic generally rose annually since 1984, until the beginning of economic uncertainty in the middle of the 2000s.

WSDOT’s response is about as pure an example of B.S. as one is likely to find in public discourse. Let’s break it down, point by point.

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Where Are My Cars: The Latest from Seattle

The Seattle Department of Transportation came out with its annual traffic report a week or so back.  And the things that caught my eye (surprise, surprise) were the traffic trends.

For years, Seattle has used traffic counts on bridges—the chart at the top—as the chief gauge of overall traffic trends in the city. According to the report: “We use these counts because driving almost anywhere in Seattle is likely to involve crossing one of the bridges.”

For 2010, traffic on Seattle bridges ticked upwards. But it was a modest increase, and it didn’t even keep up with population growth. Over the longer term, traffic on bridges has fallen pretty dramatically—and the declines started in 2003-2004, long before the economy tanked.

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Dude, Where Are My Cars: Multnomah County

Continuing my obsession with flat-lining traffic trends, here’s a chart showing that drivers in Multnomah County—Oregon’s most populous county, and home to Portland—logged fewer miles on state-owned highways in 2009 than they did in 1995. Traffic volumes on those roads hit their all-time peak in 2002.

The numbers all come from the Oregon DOT website (here’s a link to the actual spreadsheet with county-level VMT figures).

What puzzles me is: why aren’t the facts about flat traffic trends more widely known? It’s not like they’re particularly new; throughout the northwest, traffic growth has been defying predictions for well over a decade. Yet still, many folks who ought to know the trends are disinclined to believe them.

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Peak Gas Hits Oregon

We hate to say we told you so…wait, strike that, we actually kinda like it: “ODOT says road projects may need to be cut.”

Oregon transportation officials say they may have to scale back plans for highway work because revenue from road users is coming in more slowly than expected. Cash-strapped drivers are using less gasoline, so they’re also paying less in gas taxes—and that means Oregon stands to lose $150 million or more in federal funding, officials warn.

Just last week, we released a new report showing that gasoline consumption in Oregon and Washington has been pretty much flat since 1999, while vehicle travel flat-lined in 2002. In short, people are driving less; and it’s not just the recession. We warned that these trends could wreak havoc on highway financing. And in only one week, we’ve had 2 confirmations of those warnings. 

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A Generational Shift In Driving?

From a presentation on the Transportation Research Board website, a comparison of age-specific driving habits in 2001 vs. 2008:

Both data series come from the National Household Transportation Survey — the blue from 2001, the red from 2008.  Among older folks, driving didn’t change that much between the two studies. But among younger Americans, driving habits changed radically: folks between the ages of 20 and 40 drove far less in 2008 than their counterparts did in 2001.

This is perhaps the most compelling piece of evidence I’ve seen suggesting that there’s been a profound generational shift in America’s driving habits.

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Disappearing Cars, Circa 2002

For months now, we’ve been tracking the fact that vehicle travel in the Northwest—both in general, and on specific urban highwayshas been surprisingly flat for years, even decades.

One of the most common reactions to this news has been:  well, duh, there’s a recession on. A few folks have argued that once the recession lifts we’ll see vehicle travel resume its steady ascent.

I think that misses the point of what we’re finding.  The slowdown in vehicle travel started long, long before the current recession began. In fact, it started back when the economy appeared to be humming along quite nicely.

The graph to the right shows it best. Total annual vehicle travel in Washington and Oregon grew steadily for many years. Then, in about 1999, growth started to moderate. And after a few years of slower-than-average increases, traffic volumes essentially plateaued in 2002.

Since 2008 we’ve seen driving dip, tick upward, and then dip again—which is perfectly consistent with what’s happened with the economy and fuel prices.

But the interesting part of the story isn’t the recent trends. It’s what happened about a decade ago to make the VMT curve flatten out.

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Washington’s 700 Million Gallon Diet

I’m going to sound like Clark for moment. According to the most recent forecasts from Washington’s Office of Financial Management, drivers in the state will guzzle 2.6 billion gallons of gasoline in 2027. I have no idea if that’s accurate, but I do know that it’s 21 percent—and 700 million gallons—lower than the forecast that OFM made just 9 months previously.

My chart has the details:

 

That split between the lines amounts to a pretty shocking revision because it assumes that Washington has already hit peak gasoline consumption. In fact, according to the state’s official numbers the peak happened way back in 2002. For the foreseeable future the state’s experts now believe we’re looking at a long-term slide in gasoline use.

Now to be perfectly clear, I have no idea whether the red line is any more accurate than the old green line. No one really knows. But there is at least some reason to wonder whether even the latest forecast, published in June, may too be overshooting the mark.

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Washington’s 20 Billion Mile Diet

According to the most recent forecasts from the Washington State Office of Financial Management, drivers in Washington State will rack up about 65 billion miles on the highways in 2031.

I have no idea if that number is anywhere close to accurate. Nobody does. But what I do know is that the current estimate is 21 billion miles lower than the forecast that OFM made 3 years ago, and more than 10 billion miles lower than their forecast from just last year.  The chart has the details:

It’s awfully tempting to suggest this chart shows that OFM is gradually groping towards more realistic traffic projections.

But does it, really? To be honest, I don’t actually know if the blue line is more “realistic” than the orange line. Sure, the blue line is more consistent with the actual traffic trends over the last decade—a period when annual VMT growth slowed to a crawl. But I don’t have a crystal ball that tells me which of the three lines is the most “realistic” depiction of the future.

Instead, I think the real lessons of the chart lie elsewhere.

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