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Event: Innovations in Democracy

Next Tuesday, Sightline’s Kristin Eberhard will join Oregon Bus Project’s Nikki Fisher in Portland to discuss better voting systems and Oregon’s Motor Voter Law. TEDxMtHood will host this speaker salon, followed by an audience discussion and networking session. Salons are small, in-person gatherings, centered around local speakers and TEDx videos.

Find out more about Oregon's Motor Voter Law here.

How Trump Is Winning—Even Though Most Republicans Aren’t Voting for Him

This is an unusual election year in the United States, both in terms of the breadth of the Republican field and the strength of populist candidates in both parties. But some aspects are unfortunately extremely normal for the US’s two-party, plurality voting system:

  1. a candidate can win the party nomination even when most party primary voters support someone else;
  2. a tiny number of voters pick two candidates for the rest of us; and
  3. the cycle is plagued by negativity.

How Trump is winning, even though most Republicans aren’t voting for him

As of Super Tuesday, Trump is leading the Republican field with about one-third of the Republican vote. In other words, two-thirds of Republican primary voters want someone other than Trump. A super-majority of Republican voters so far have divided their votes amongst four other candidates, but whom would they choose if they could consolidate? What if Carson and Kasich had already pulled out of the race and their supporters had the chance to instead vote for one of the remaining candidates?

Ranked-choice voting permits voters to rank candidates in order of preference. If a voter’s first choice drops out of a race, their vote is transferred to their second choice. By simulating a series of runoffs in a single ballot, this system enables you to vote for an underdog without “throwing your vote away,” and it avoids the risk of splitting the majority vote between two similar candidates, thereby allowing a candidate with only plurality support to win (think: Gore/Nader/Bush, or Bush/Perot/Clinton). Ranked-choice voting ensures a majority of voters support the winner.

FairVote, the College of William and Mary, and YouGov gave 1,000 Republican voters the chance to fully express their candidate preferences through ranked-choice voting. The result: Ted Cruz eventually beat out Donald Trump (click through to Round 9). A plurality of voters ranked Trump first, but a majority of voters ranked Trump towards the bottom of their list. As candidates with the fewest top-ranked votes dropped out, more voters chose Cruz than Trump. But in our plurality voting system, in which voters only get one bite at the apple even in a race with more than two candidates, a candidate with mere plurality, not majority, support can win.

Meanwhile, the uncrowded Democratic primaries are hewing to majoritarian principles. Votes are split between just two viable candidates, so by definition, a majority of voters support one candidate. In this case, 61 percent of voters who voted in Democratic primaries through Super Tuesday voted for Clinton.

How extremist candidates make it to the ballot

With partisan primaries, a tiny fraction of voters select two candidates for the rest of us. That might be fine if primary voters looked basically like the general population, but unfortunately, primary voters are not like the rest of us. They are usually older, whiter, more extreme partisan voters.

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy.

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy.

Party primaries make it more likely that a small number of the most diehard voters will select extreme candidates within each camp. Very few voters participate in primaries—even with record Republican turnout, only about 20 percent of registered voters from the 16 states that have run their primaries have cast votes in Republican primaries, and 12 percent of voters have had a say in Democratic primaries. As a result, the current Democratic and Republican front-runners, Clinton and Trump, have garnered just 8 and 7 percent, respectively, support from registered voters in states that have held primaries. Those voters may not really speak for the other 85 percent of us.

A nonpartisan top four primary combined with ranked-choice voting would change this. All primary voters could weigh in on all candidates. More primary voters would have a chance to advance their favorite candidates to the general. All of us would get a chance to choose amongst a range of candidates, instead of being forced to choose between two partisan, and possibly extremist, candidates.

Why Republicans are getting so dirty

When there’s no prize for second place, candidates see nothing to lose and everything to gain from attacking each other. For example: Cruz ran an ad comparing Trump to a house-smashing action figure, while Trump accused Cruz of being dirty and dishonest. Meanwhile, Trump and Rubio hurled schoolyard insults about each other’s hair, ears, sweat, height, and spraytan.

Ranked-choice voting rewards candidates for talking about their policies, not their p****** (ahem). Candidates competing for second-choice votes want to positively engage voters, even those who already plan to give their first-choice spots to an opponent (watch Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges explain). That’s why voters across all demographic categories perceive campaigns in ranked-choice contests to be less negative. And a less negative, more substantive campaign sounds pretty enticing right about now, doesn’t it?

Ranked-choice voting would yield more accurate, civil, results

Voters in the Northwest states have not yet voted in the presidential primaries. Washington state Republicans held their caucuses in February, though delegates won’t be officially assigned until the May convention; its Democratic voters will get to cast votes during the party’s March 26th caucuses. Republicans and Democrats in Idaho will hold primaries on March 8th and caucuses on March 22nd, respectively. Oregon voters won’t cast ballots until May. Still, as we observe results from the rest of the country, it’s abundantly clear that plurality voting and party primaries can pervert the democratic process.

With ranked-choice voting, Trump, with support from just one-third of one party might not have a shot at becoming the president of the entire country. And with a top four primary, we might all get a chance to choose between the current front runners: Clinton, Trump, Sanders, and Cruz. With ranked-choice voting, we could choose the leader of the free world based on who wins majority support, not who tears down opponents just enough to eke by with plurality support. A sensible voting system may seem distant from this month’s sophomoric political theater, but ranked-choice voting is a viable and well tested method that could create real change in how elections work in the United States. 

Want to see how ranked-choice voting works? Go here and try it yourself.

 

Weekend Reading 3/4/16

Kristin

Nick Hanauer gives us a 21st century view of the economy: a healthy economy is one that is creating new solutions to human problems. To solve problems, we need a diversity of ideas and approaches. To foster more ideas, we need to give more people the opportunity to participate. Bill Gates had a good idea, but giving him tax breaks will not suddenly get him to have more ideas. Rather, ensuring that every citizen has the education, training, and access to capital necessary to convert their ideas into solutions is the surest-fire way to grow a healthy economy. In other words: we need a thriving middle class, not a thriving oligarchy.

Since I became a mother, it has occurred to me that advice about parenting, relationships, and workplaces is largely the same. Here is Google’s advice for building the perfect workplace team: create psychological safety. Team members must have a sense that the team is a safe place for interpersonal risk-taking; a sense of confidence that the team will not embarrass, reject, or punish someone for speaking up. (The article doesn’t really get to the point until nearly two-thirds through, so scroll down if you are impatient.) Remarkably like the advice for a good marriage or a healthy kid.

Have I ever mentioned that most jobs are headed towards automation, and we need to adjust our attitude towards work and livelihood, starting with a Basic Income? Oh, I have? Well, here it is again: software is quickly replacing even highly skilled, highly paid jobs on Wall Street. “The Robots Are Coming” evokes images of hardware, which is misleading because it plays into the systems-defender scenario that we will create new jobs to manage the robots, as we did in the 1980s when IBM and Dell started building computers and created new jobs to build and deliver the hardware. Not this time. A small team can build software and then—poof—sell it to firms around the world who fire humans and don’t hire new ones. The only new jobs in the US are lower-paying service jobs—retail, barista, personal trainer—to serve the elites who own the software. We can’t just continue on blithely hoping jobs will magically appear. We need to create a 21st century economy in which it is fantastic news that software is doing mind-numbing tasks like scraping huge amount of data because it frees us up to be humans.

Anna

How to win an election: a leading political strategist explains how winning candidates use the art of storytelling. (Spoiler: A powerful narrative arc has a threat, opportunity, heroes, and villains.)

Bloomberg’s unnerving Climate Clock.

Tarika

North Texans for Natural Gas has created a pro-fracking answer to BuzzFeed, and they’re calling it FrackFeed. FrackFeed tries to create hip memes using the internet’s favorite things: cats, celebrities, and GIFs. If you stumbled across their Facebook page, Instagram or Twitter, you’d probably think it was too bizarre to be real. Take, for example, the e-cards they posted on Valentine’s Day.

Not hip enough for you? How about a meme with Jay-Z lyrics?

*facepalm*

Listening to an episode of 99% Invisible last week, I learned that Exxon was the only gas station that carried The Green Book during the Jim Crow era. The Green Book listed establishments that were safe for African-Americans to stop at while they were taking road trips on the shiny new interstate highway system. The book was started in 1936 by an African-American postman from New Jersey named Victor Green. He used the postal union to gather information from African-American mailmen across the country about establishments that served African-Americans. The postmen also sold the books within the community by word of mouth. PBS has links to full editions of The Green Book as well as an interactive map of the 1956 Green Book. Perhaps you’ll find that you know a location that was listed.

Dan

With Super Tuesday results upping the odds that Trump’s nomination could actually happen, the burning question is, why?  Over at Vox, Amanda Taub has a disturbingly plausible explanation:

“Not only did authoritarianism correlate, but it seemed to predict support for Trump more reliably than any other indicator.”

“This trend had been accelerated in recent years by demographic and economic changes such as immigration, which activated authoritarian tendencies, leading many Americans to seek out a strongman leader who would preserve a status quo they feel is under threat and impose order on a world they perceive as increasingly alien.”

“And the extreme nature of authoritarians’ fears, and of their desire to challenge threats with force, would lead them toward a candidate whose temperament was totally unlike anything we usually see in American politics —and whose policies went far beyond the acceptable norms.”

Meanwhile over at Strong Towns, Charles Marohn, riffing off a blog post by author John Michael Greer, connects the Trump dots all the way back to incremental city building and resilient, neighborhood-based economies.

Greer contends that Trump’s rise is driven by the resentment of the “wage class,” which has been decimated over the past 50 years, much to the benefit of the “salary class” (my class, that is, and most likely yours too, dear reader). Greer:

“The man is brilliant. I mean that without the smallest trace of mockery. He’s figured out that the most effective way to get the wage class to rally to his banner is to get himself attacked, with the usual sort of shrill mockery, by the salary class.”

Marohn concludes:

“…incremental investments, resiliency over efficiency, adaptive and bottom-up provide opportunities for hard working people to bootstrap their own success… Don’t turn your back on wage earners.”

I’m still mulling, but I will say this: Greer now has me questioning whether blaming authoritarianism for Trump is but a different flavor of shrill mockery, politely cloaked in salary class intellectualism.

Louis

This came to my attention because of a one-page article in New Scientist titled This Car Makes a Little Hydrogen Go a Long Way. Normal cars powered by hydrogen require a bulky fuel cell so that they can compete with combustion engine-driven cars. Rasa was designed with the car around the fuel cell, thus requiring a lot less power for ordinary driving while using the fuel cell and brakes to power a “supercapacitor” to generate bursts of energy for acceleration. (The nontraditional approach used in designing the Rasa is the basis for its name after the Latin phrase tabula rasa, “clean slate.”) One advantage over electric cars is that the energy density of the fuel cell is greater than an electric battery. The problem with Rasa is the embryonic state of hydrogen fuel cell supply. But that too will change as more fuel cell-based cars come on the market such as Toyota’s Mirai and Honda’s FCX Clarity.

 

Louis Poncz is a Sightline volunteer who occasionally submits material to Weekend Reading.

Video: Seattle’s Housing Shortage

Mayor Ed Murray continued the conversation around his housing affordability and livability agenda (HALA) at a packed Seattle City Hall meeting in January. Amidst the shouting from opponents of the plan, a beacon of hope took the mic: single-mom, single-family homeowner, and Ballard neighborhood resident Sara Maxana.

Maxana shared a story about why she’s okay with her block being upzoned for multifamily housing under the HALA recommendations. While describing that her house has increased in value nearly 20 percent in just 15 months, she said:

“Its value has skyrocketed because we have a housing shortage in this city that is driving up the value of all existing homes. And while that’s benefiting me as a homeowner, it’s hurting others. It’s pushing up rents across the city and pricing people out of ownership. And I don’t see why one class of people, homeowners, should be getting a windfall from the same phenomenon that is causing other people in Seattle to struggle.”

Maxana’s message is a strong one that Seattle residents should hear: home values are rising, not due to sweat equity but rather to the housing crisis and at a cost of other people struggling to find a place to live.

Read: Why one person's affordable housing emergency is another person's cha-ching.

Northwest Coal Exports: What to Expect in 2016

In 2016, the debate over Northwest coal exports will heat up again. Of the six projects originally targeted for Oregon and Washington, all but two have died. And these two—terminals that would be the first and second largest in North America—will come up for public review this year when the government agencies reviewing them will publish Draft Environmental Impact Statements.

These documents are the first opportunity for the public to see a thorough analysis of the projects’ impacts. Their publication is followed by a period that allows members of the public to weigh in with comments that the reviewers are obligated to respond to. So in preparation for those reviews, here is what you need to know about the current state of Northwest coal export schemes.

Millennium Bulk Terminals (Longview, Washington)

A proposal to export 44 million metric tons of coal annually from a site on the Columbia River, Millennium Bulk Terminals would be the biggest coal terminal in North America (second only to the project planned for Whatcom County). It has also been intensely controversial—so much so, in fact, that the government agencies reviewing the project were swamped with 215,000 public comments during the “scoping” phase of the review. Washington regulators subsequently decided to look at the local and global effects of burning coal among many other dimensions of the state’s review, which will be conducted jointly with Cowlitz County.

Scope of government reviews

The Washington Department of Ecology anticipates that the state and Cowlitz County will publish a joint Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) on April 30, to be followed by a minimum of 21 days of public comment. Originally slated for release in November 2015, officials extended the deadline to allow for more study of a) the risk of vessel incidents on the Columbia River owing to an increase in marine traffic, b) impacts to vehicle traffic during peak travel times, and c) consequences of increased rail traffic through Longview’s industrial corridor. Cowlitz County defined its interests in the review to include greenhouse gas pollution from the project itself resulting from the ensuing coal combustion plus rail and coal dust impacts within the county’s jurisdiction. Ecology added in-state and out-of-state rail impacts and marine vessel transportation. The State/County DEIS will also include a “Health Impact Assessment” that will examine air quality implications, noise and vibration impacts, and public safety threats and mobility impacts near the site.

The US Army Corps of Engineers is conducting a separate review of the project on behalf of the federal government. That agency is expected to publish its DEIS for Millennium Bulk Terminals in July 2016.  After the DEIS and public comment period of at least 45 days, the government will issue a Final EIS, although no date has yet been announced. The Final EIS will include revisions based on and responses to the comments submitted on the Draft, and it is intended to inform federal agencies’ subsequent decisions about issuing permits.

Want more? Here's how Northwest communities have stopped coal export projects.

Permit decisions

After the county review is complete, Cowlitz County will decide whether to issue development permits for the site. Two state agencies will also decide whether to issue permits: The Washington Department of Ecology exercises jurisdiction of a Water Quality Certification that the project needs, while the state’s Department of Natural Resources is responsible for issuing a lease for state-owned aquatic lands at the site, as well as other permits. Finally, the Army Corps must determine whether the proposal complies with federal laws and determine whether the development requires any mitigation.

Additional challenges to the project

Even barring trouble with environmental reviews and permitting, there is reason to think that the project may no longer be financially viable. Ambre Energy, the initial project backer, had hoped to begin operations by mid-2014, but that date has moved well into 2017 at the earliest. In the meantime, a series of financial reversals resulted in Ambre selling its North American assets to its creditor, a risk-hungry private equity firm called Resource Capital Funds that has renamed the company Lighthouse Resources. Meanwhile, the project’s minority backer, Arch Coal, has seen its fortunes deteriorate so precipitously that it recently collapsed into bankruptcy.

Gateway Pacific Terminal (Ferndale, Washington)

Project backer SSA Marine has plans to build a 48 million ton per year coal export terminal on the shores of Puget Sound in northern Whatcom County. It would be the largest coal terminal in North America, and the project is arguably the single most hotly contested fossil fuel infrastructure proposal in the Northwest.

Scope of government reviews

The government agencies reviewing the project are on independent tracks, with the US Army Corps of Engineers conducting one DEIS while the Washington Department of Ecology, in partnership with Whatcom County, conducts a more comprehensive DEIS analysis. Both DEIS documents are expected to be released in late 2016, followed by hearings and a comment period of at least 45 days.

The Gateway Pacific Terminal would be the largest coal terminal in North America.
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Key issues that may be identified in both Statements are coal dust particulate matter and greenhouse gas pollution modeling, which were added as additional scope items echoing public input. In addition, Ecology’s analysis will account for many further impacts of the Gateway Pacific Terminal, including rail traffic and diesel exhaust from the 16 additional trains that would traverse the state each day, risks of increased marine vessel traffic, and burdens on public services like police, fire, and EMS. In addition, Ecology has already flagged wetland and water quality violations by the project.

Permit decisions

After the environmental review process is complete, estimated to be late 2017 at the earliest, the project will still require an array of permits that will be detailed in the final EIS. From the State, project backers will need an Aquatic Lands Lease from the Department of Natural Resources and State Lands Commissioner, along with Water Quality Certification, National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System, and Coastal Zone Management Certifications from the Department of Ecology. From the feds, the Army Corps of Engineers will need to coordinate a Record of Decision on federal interests, such as discharge and dredging or fill, and other relevant laws, including the Endangered Species Act.

Whatcom County also will have its say over Major Development and Shoreline Substantial Development permits, among others, representing a potentially serious obstacle to the project. The current majority of the Whatcom County Council is supported by environmental advocates who are against the terminal, although four of the seven members will be up for election in fall 2017. Competing ballot measures to amend how the County Council is elected were approved by voters in fall 2015 and may impact the Council’s makeup, depending on how a bipartisan committee draws the new voting boundaries.

Additional challenges to the project

The project proposal has been plagued by troubles. Among the most serious is the Lummi Nation’s demand that the US Army Corps deny the permit application because it endangers the tribe’s treaty-protected fishing rights. The Swinomish and Tulalip Tribes have sent similar letters in support of the Lummi. The project is proposed in a state aquatic reserve and in treaty-protected fishing areas of five Washington Tribes. It also overlaps Xwe’chi’eXen, a Lummi village site and ancestral cemetery.

The Corps’ DEIS will determine whether the project poses more than a minor (de minimis) disruption to the tribe’s treaty-protected fishing rights. There’s also a chance that the determination will be revealed sooner than the DEIS, and it could trigger a denial of the project. The stakes are so high for would-be coal exporters that in December 2015, the US House of Representatives passed an energy bill with an amendment by Representative Zinke, a republication from Montana, that stipulates that federal permits for projects like Gateway may not be denied until the agencies have completed all the required reviews. The amendment directly targeted the Lummi’s request to the Corps for an immediate halt to the review process.

The companies behind the terminal have made some recent adjustments to try to head off challenges by the Lummi. In December 2015, the project backers resubmitted to the Corps a revised Joint Aquatic Resources Permit Application, originally filed in 2011, with an updated site layout, port operations, and safety plan, and an updated boundary that sets aside an additional 300 acres for wetlands. They also included wetland mitigation plans and measures, believed by observers to be an attempt to forestall a finding of disruption to tribal fishing protected areas.

The Millennium Bulk and Gateway Pacific Terminals Draft Environmental Impact Statements are the last official public comment opportunities on these projects.  They may become the tombstones for new coal export terminals in the Northwest given the Thin Green Line’s turnout during the scoping periods and recent success delaying or ending fossil fuel export projects in Tacoma and Longview.

Read more: A torrent of terrible news for coal exports continues.

Two Northwest Oil Train Projects Flop

In the first month of 2016, a pair of fledgling oil-by-rail projects abruptly collapsed in Oregon and Washington. One on the Columbia River, which had been operating since 2012, abruptly laid off more than half its workforce as it pivoted away from crude. The other, a proposal on the Pacific Coast that was still seeking permits, suddenly abandoned its intentions of handling oil.

The strange history of these projects serves as both a case study for the volatility of the industry and a red flag for communities pinning their economic hopes on oil development.

Grays Harbor, Washington

2016 began with big news for oil-by-rail development in Washington. On January 6, Iowa-based biofuels producer Renewable Energy Group (REG) announced that it would no longer pursue permits for crude oil storage at its biodiesel facility at the Port of Grays Harbor.

Local opposition groups cheered the announcement as a major victory for protecting the local fishing industry and community safety. Fawn Sharp, president of the Quinault Indian Nation, told the Everett Herald, “The company took to heart the concerns of thousands of people who spoke out about the dangers of crude oil storage and transport to our communities and waterways.”

Grays Harbor is not yet in the clear. Two other oil-by-rail terminal projects are still pending there.
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When REG purchased local company Imperium Renewables in the summer of 2015, it also acquired the biodiesel producer’s Grays Harbor terminal and its plans to convert the site to handle crude oil. Prior to the purchase, Imperium had been having trouble gathering enough money to fund its full operations, which prevented the firm from producing at more than a small fraction of the facility’s capacity. So to break its financial stagnation, Imperium had been seeking permits to store and ship crude oil, even though the firm’s sole mission was to provide an alternative to conventional petroleum product. That saga came to an end when REG announced that crude would not be part of its plans going forward.

Unfortunately, Grays Harbor is not yet in the clear. Two other oil-by-rail terminal projects are still pending there. Westway Terminals is seeking permits to expand its methanol facility to store and ship up to 49,000 barrels of crude oil per day, while US Development is seeking permits to handle 45,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

Read more: What oil trains threaten in Grays Harbor.

Port Westward, Oregon

A few weeks after the Grays Harbor news, on January 28, Boston-based Global Partners announced that it would lay off 28 of the 47 workers at its Columbia River facility near Clatskanie, Oregon. The layoffs presaged a transition away from oil. The firm announced it would spend the following six to eight months converting the facility to handle ethanol. It was a curious twist of fate given the site’s history.

Originally touted as “an environmental success story,” the facility had been built in 2008 by Cascade Grain for $200 million to operate as an ethanol plant. The project garnered $36 million in state loans and tax credits, but it never once operated with renewable fuels. Instead, in 2009, the company filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy as it fell victim to the same downturn that claimed many domestic biofuels producers: a souring of the market driven by rising commodity prices and skittish investors.

Two years later, Massachusetts-based Global Partners purchased the facility. Then, on June 22, 2012, just 22 days after applying for permits, Oregon regulators approved Global Partners’ plans to switch to crude oil. The company breezed through permitting, in stark contrast to the proposed coal export terminals in Oregon and Washington that were meanwhile facing years-long environmental reviews.

Even so, the company did not abide by the terms of its permits. State regulators had allowed Global Partners to ship 50 million gallons of oil annually, but between December 2012 and November 2013, the company moved a whopping 297 million gallons—nearly six times the permitted quantity—into its facility alongside the Columbia River. Oregon’s Department of Environmental Quality called it a violation of the “highest level.” Yet despite Global Partners’ egregious abuse, the state simply granted the company a new permit, allowing it to move as much as 1.8 billion gallons of crude annually, or the equivalent of 50 mile-long trains per month.

The facility continued to operate as an oil depot, moving crude from trains to storage tanks to marine vessels, until early 2016, when dismal economic conditions forced Global Partners to abandon oil in favor of ethanol.

Global oil downturn felt in Northwest

Over the last two years, global oil prices have tanked. A host of factors have contributed to the drop-off, but among them are over-production and a decoupling of energy consumption from economic growth. Together, these trends have so rocked the industry that it appears no one, from the smallest producers to the world’s largest oil companies, is insulated from layoffs and even bankruptcy. Extracting fuel from many of the newest and most expensive deposits, like the Canadian tar sands, undersea Arctic crude, and Bakken shale oil, no longer makes economic sense.

In the Northwest, projects like those backed by Global Partners and Imperium that were rushed forward to take advantage of the domestic oil boom have gone belly-up just as quickly. Although it may seem surprising, the pattern is consistent with the oil industry’s notorious history of volatility. It was not the first time (nor probably the last) that such a rapid shift occurred. And it’s a cautionary tale for Northwest residents and regulators who are deciding whether to permit a number of large-scale oil distribution projects in their own communities.

Listen in: Oil trains in the Northwest, explained.

Killing the Crude Oil Export Ban: A Postmortem

Oil companies may now freely export all kinds of crude oil without involvement from BIS.
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About a year-and-a-half ago, when Anna Sewell, a new lawyer for EarthJustice, moved across the country to Seattle from the heart of the Marcellus shale natural gas drilling hub in Pennsylvania, she expected to leave behind the local furor created by the huge numbers of new unconventional gas wells drilled in the area. Instead, as she drove westward, she saw first-hand that the Marcellus was only the tip of the iceberg. From mile-long crude oil trains to oil field workers sharing her 4:00 AM oatmeal at a hotel in Dickinson, North Dakota, to an astounding number of dramatic flares flanking the highways at night, there were signs everywhere along the route that the fracking revolution extended well beyond the Northeast’s natural gas supply.

How fracking helped push the crude oil export ban over the edge

Anna’s travels illustrated the new reality of the modern American energy industry and its widespread deployment of new drilling techniques like hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”). In fact, Americans in many regions of the country have witnessed an enormous surge in the production of both oil and natural gas. Shale-dominated regions like the Marcellus, the Eagle Ford in Texas, and the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana, have become household names as companies vie for drilling rights on public and private lands.

As domestic oil production surged, so did US oil companies’ efforts to lobby Congress for a repeal of the export ban in the hopes of finding overseas markets for the glut of crude they had created. For forty years, the ban generally prohibited the export of crude oil. By the end of 2015, however, the industry’s long campaign against the ban finally proved successful when Congress repealed it, opening the floodgates to all kinds of crude oil exports.

No one knows for sure what the full effect of lifting the ban will be. Regardless of whether crude oil exports increase meaningfully in the coming months and years, it is clear that they had already skyrocketed in the last few years. In 2014 alone, weekly crude exports increased by more than 700 percent not because of Congressional action, but because the Obama administration had been quietly eroding the law.

What you need to know about the crude oil export ban lift.

No public input on the rule change

In deliberate response to increasing domestic oil production, a little-known federal agency called the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) had begun considering ways to loosen the crude export ban. The ban prohibited the export of crude oil and condensate, a very light form of crude oil, unless it had been processed through a crude “distillation tower,” but it did allow firms to export refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel. In the summer of 2014, BIS issued unusual new commodity classifications to oil companies, labeling their condensate as a refined petroleum product that was eligible for export even under the ban. The change meant that oil companies could freely export their condensate to other countries without a license, which was important to the industry because the Eagle Ford Shale region in Texas was producing vast quantities of condensate.

After BIS issued its new classifications, the agency decided it needed to take formal action to clarify its new position on crude oil exports. BIS considered its legal options and ultimately opted not to provide the public with the customary opportunity to comment on its policy via either a public rulemaking or a public environmental review process. Instead, BIS decided to publish confusing FAQ-style documents on its website. It was a remarkably high-handed response for an agency that had just effectively changed the definition of crude oil, thus allowing the export of fuel that had been only minimally distilled. The FAQs identified several new factors the agency would use to unilaterally determine if condensate or crude had been sufficiently processed in order to be classified as a refined petroleum product that was not subject to the ban. BIS refused to publicly admit this was a policy change and kept the commodity classifications and related documents secret.

The Sightline and Earthjustice lawsuit

On February 10, 2015, Sightline Institute retained Earthjustice to file a formal Freedom of Information Act request, seeking the release of documents related to BIS’s new FAQs, as well as the commodity classifications BIS had issued to oil companies in summer 2014. When BIS failed to release any documents whatsoever, Earthjustice filed a lawsuit on Sightline’s behalf seeking the requested documents. BIS then released documents that indicated it had considered pursuing a rulemaking or environmental review process, but decided instead to issue the FAQs. Yet BIS still refused to release the condensate commodity classification documents, claiming they were privileged records that could be withheld from the public.

In December 2015, while the lawsuit was ongoing, Congress repealed the crude export ban altogether. The repeal happened quickly, and somewhat unexpectedly, via a rider on the omnibus spending bill. The rider completely lifted the ban, although it preserves the authority of the President to reinstate the ban for one-year periods in certain limited circumstances. The documents BIS had withheld were therefore rendered historical footnotes. As a result, Sightline dismissed its Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.

Consequences for Cascadia

Oil companies may now freely export all kinds of crude oil without involvement from BIS. This new regulatory landscape, coupled with the surge in crude exports created by BIS’s secretive weakening of the ban in 2014, may have potentially serious environmental and public health consequences for many years to come. Rising numbers of crude oil trains and tankers moving through our towns and ports will increase the risk of spills and explosions along rail routes and in sensitive waterways like Puget Sound. The change also marks a step backward in efforts to reduce carbon pollution. With the now-unfettered ability to export crude, it is especially important that we prevent the fossil fuel industry from turning the Northwest into a pipeline for US crude exports to Asia.

These developments raise the stakes in a standoff that’s already underway: oil companies striving to develop major crude shipment depots squaring off with local and regional anti-fossil fuel movements like the Thin Green Line in the Northwest.

Read more: Sightline sues Obama administration over crude oil exports.

Anna Sewell is an associate attorney in Earthjustice’s Northwest office.

Weekend Reading 2/26/16

Kristin

Funny-shaped districts aren’t the problem with American voting. Electing one representative per district (funny-shaped or otherwise) is the problem. We can solve it with multi-member districts that ensure minority views get represented and it doesn’t matter who draws then district lines. Yes, yes, and more yes.

The Brennan Center’s Democracy agenda: Voting rights, money in politics, and redistricting. (Lots to read—all of it good stuff.)

Wondering how much climate pollution you emit when you drive, bus, or fly? This great infographic shows you that carpooling in a regular gas car is more climate-efficient than driving alone in a Tesla.

Transit-oriented development (TOD), developing dense housing near rail stations, might create most of its benefits from the density, not the rail.

Could the high-stakes brinkmanship around nominating Scalia’s replacement on the Supreme Court bring both parties to the table to create sensible term limits for justices? One can always hope.

Maybe right and left disagree about whether we need more equality of outcomes, but can’t we all agree that we need more equality of opportunity in America?

Tarika

If you’re looking for something good to listen to, I highly recommend a recent episode of This American Life called My Damn Mind, which tells how a young student experiencing a mental health crisis drove himself to the hospital for help and wound up being shot in the chest by armed security guards in his hospital room. The episode was a collaboration with the New York Times; the paper investigated the rise of armed but improperly trained security in hospitals.

The coal industry continues to resist protecting miners from excessive dust inhalation despite the ongoing death toll. Although many think of black lung disease as antiquated or even eradicated, the reality is that the disease killed more than 10,000 miners between 1995 and 2004.  A joint study by NPR and the Center for Public Integrity found that black lung cases doubled between 2002 and 2012, and the number of people diagnosed with the worst stages of black lung quadrupled. By 2014, black lung cases had risen to levels not seen since the early 1970s. Why? Some coal companies are mining thin seams of coal and in the process they grind up a lot of the surrounding rock: quartz. Quartz contains silica, and breathing in small silica particles can lead to silicosis and lung cancer. Miners in some geologic regions are breathing in large amounts of silicates in addition to coal dust, and it’s causing more severe lung deterioration. The exposure to silicates could be lessened if coal companies would slow the speed of drilling equipment, but they choose not to do so even though coal production rates are triple what they were in the 1970s. In addition, coal companies self-report whether they are complying with federal rules and there is “widespread gaming of the system,” according to NPR and the Center for Public Integrity. The Mine Safety and Health Administration passed a new rule in 2014 to limit miners’ exposure to coal dust and silicates, the first time coal dust limits had been lowered in 45 years.  The new rules aim to cut sampling loopholes and reduce coal dust exposure limits by 25 percent. The agency wanted to cut exposure limits by half, but the rule received strong opposition from the coal industry, which labeled it costly and unnecessary. Speaking of costs, the federal government has helped the coal industry pay $45 billion in benefits related to black lung since 1970.

Keiko

Adding on to Tarika’s podcast recommendation, which I highly suggest as well, here’s a must-watch seven minute video about gun violence in the United States. Vox explains how America doesn’t have more crime than other countries, “it’s that crime in the US is much more lethal.” The number of gun deaths from 2000 to 2013 exceed the number of Americans killed by AIDS, illegal drug overdoses, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and terrorism combined. The bottom line—more guns = more deaths; currently there are 300 million guns in the US and counting.

More videos! Start off your weekend right by watching 106-year-old Virginia McLaurin dance with the Obamas. She’s got some serious moves.

Dan

I once asked sustainability guru Paul Hawkin what he thought of The Long Emergency, James Howard Kunstler’s ruthlessly sobering prediction of what running out of oil would look like in North America. Hawken couldn’t hide his disdain for what he felt was the underlying premise of the book, namely, that “people are punks” (and not in the cool, Sex Pistols sense of the word).  What he meant is that Kunstler’s doomsday scenarios rested on the assumption that human nature will fail in the face of our imminent transformational crises.

In 2010, Kunstler told me over a drink that the project of the American suburbs is the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world. Fair enough. But he also went on about how within five years, the airline industry would fall apart and only elites would fly. Kunstler’s larger-than-life cynical persona—succinctly captured by the name of his blog, Clusterf*** Nation—is not for everyone. Yet there is no denying that his 1993 Geography of Nowhere is an all time classic in the city builder canon.

And wait, what? Kunstler also writes novels? Yes, and I was as skeptical as anyone, but there it was, a copy of World Made By Hand staring back at me from the used bookstore shelf. Once upon a time I fancied the idea of being a novelist and devoured writer’s writing (David Foster Wallace, etc.) but I’ve since lost patience for virtuosity, and can’t get through a novel unless it grabs my heart in some way. And Kunstler’s book did.

World Made By Hand tells the story of a Long Emergency-era summer in a small town in upstate New York. Sure, it’s a bit rough around the edges, but Kunstler created characters I could care about and a plot with seductive arcs. Not to mention that for anyone who has noticed all the ways in which western culture has dangerously overextended itself, there’s something irresistible about a downfall scenario brought to life in prose.

And no, this isn’t a story of punks—think more Little House on the Prairie than Mad Max. Nor does Kunstler oversell the charms of the simple life. In short, it’s a smaller but harder world that brings out the human in people for better or for worse.

A Good Way to Make Housing Scarcer and More Expensive

If you want to kill off a small-scale housing type, require “design review”—an official process for which developers must submit their building plans for review and public comment. That’s the main lesson of the five years of lowrise development in Cascadia’s largest city, Seattle, since it overhauled its regulations concerning multifamily neighborhoods in 2011.

That overhaul was intended by its proponents as tonic for better designed townhouses and rowhouses, and in many ways it succeeded. But it also precipitated a critical failure by suppressing the number—and raising the price—of new dwellings available for sale. More generally, Seattle’s 2011 multifamily regulation is a case study of the unintended consequences of innocuous-seeming housing rules.

Seattle’s lowrise profile

Seattle’s lowrise zones constitute 10 percent of the city’s land that is zoned for housing. Although the capacity for new housing in lowrise zones is small compared to the city’s higher-density zones, lowrise housing fills an important niche known as the “missing middle,” made up of duplexes, triplexes, rowhouses, and small apartment buildings: “missing,” because many growing cities such as Seattle offer little of it, and “middle,” because the square footage of housing per acre exceeds that in a single-family neighborhood but falls short of that in typical apartment zones. Missing middle housing offers an affordable entry to home ownership for young families and can also be a good fit for older people downsizing.

Ballard fourpack , by Dan Bertolet, used with permission.

Townhouse four-pack in Seattle’s Ballard neighborhood by Dan Bertolet (Used with permission.)

From the late 1980s until 2011, townhouse development ruled Seattle’s lowrise realms. The most common configuration, four duplex units looming over a shared driveway, became unaffectionately known as the “four-pack.” Widespread dissatisfaction with the four-pack and the desire for a greater variety of lowrise housing types catalyzed Seattle’s 2011 multifamily code update. Construction statistics since 2011 for lowrise housing show that more than half of lowrise dwellings built for sale during the period were clusters of single-family homes. Rowhouses made up 30 percent and townhouses just 15 percent of new, for-sale dwellings.

For-sale Lowrise Housing Built Since 2011
Project Type Number of Projects % of Total Design Review Req?
Single-family Cluster 393 52% No
Rowhouse 229 30% No
Townhouse 117 15% Yes
Garden Courtyard 9 1.2% Yes
Terrace Courtyard 11 1.4% Yes

These figures reflect a sea change after the 2011 updates to the lowrise code: builders largely abandoned four-packs and most other kinds of townhouses in favor of single-family clusters and rowhouses. Most four-packs were ugly, it’s true, but the city threw out the baby with the bath water. Townhouses often yield more housing than any other type of lowrise housing that is available for sale rather than rental. More units typically means more money for developers, so you’d expect them to keep building townhouses. The main reason they stopped? The 2011 code says that townhouses must undergo what’s called “Streamlined Design Review,” an extended project review period during which neighbors are invited to submit written comments and city planning staff assess compliance with approved design guidelines.

The devil is in the Design Review

To the casual observer, design review probably seems like no big deal—after all, it’s just a requirement to pause briefly for design appraisal before breaking ground. But for builders, time is everything, and Streamlined Design Review can add several months to a typical townhouse project, along with a big serving of uncertainty over potential design changes that may be demanded. The housing market is impossible to predict more than 18 months out. In response, builders and their investors routinely opt for faster and more predictable timelines, even if doing so reduces their potential returns.

Instead of townhouses, builders opted for something that’s almost the same but remains exempt from design review. Over the same five years, construction of single-family (SF) clusters leapt from negligible to the head of the lowrise field. SF clusters are like four-packs, but you substitute small freestanding houses for the common-wall units in a townhouse development. Of all the lowrise types, SF clusters yield the fewest—and most expensive—homes per acre. Although each SF house commands a higher price than would a common-wall unit on the same site, SF clusters’ reduced number of units yields diminished profits for developers.

Single Family Cluster Project, by Windermere Real Estate, used with permission.

Single-family cluster project by Hao Dang, Windermere Real Estate (Used with permission.)

On the positive side, the 2011 code changes jumpstarted rowhouses. In a rowhouse, each home owns the land from the street face to the back of the lot—that is, unlike townhouses, they cannot be arranged with one building behind another, a constraint that limits the lot configurations that are feasible. The 2011 code loosened setback, depth, and width requirements that had previously rendered the rowhouse building type essentially impossible. But the new regulations did not impose design review on rowhouses.

EastlakeRowhouses, by b9 Architects, used with permission.

Eastlake Rowhouses, b9 Architects by William Wright Photography (Used with permission.)

Despite the inherent limitations of positioning all units in a row at the sidewalk regardless of site topography and configuration, the exemption from design review still pushed rowhouse construction to twice the pace of townhouse construction over the past five years. That’s good news, because rowhouses can often yield as many new for-sale dwellings as townhouses, but they create a more appealing pedestrian environment with their street-facing entries and stoops, as opposed to the alienating, cavernous paved “auto-court” at the center of a typical four-pack. One downside, however, is that at the back of rowhouses, driveways and garages often take over area that would ideally be greenspace.

Indeed, the need to accommodate parking is the Achilles heel of all of the lowrise types. About half of Seattle’s residential blocks have alleys. For sites without alleys, the typical design solution dedicates significant interior site area to an auto-court, which has been the chief complaint against townhouses.

In contrast, for sites adjacent to an alley, parking can be conveniently located along it, leaving more space for people in a central “pedestrian court.” A little more than half of the 117 townhouse projects built since 2011 have pedestrian courts. Some builders have attempted to maximize these courtyards by consolidating units to create larger common open spaces—informally categorized as “Garden Courtyards” in the table above.

Another innovative approach to overcoming the challenge of parking is known as a “Terrace Courtyard.” This new design—unique to Seattle—covers the central driveways and parking area with a courtyard lid, transforming the center of the site from an automobile zone to useful open space for the residents. The Terrace Courtyard was made possible by the added design flexibility that came with the 2011 code update, and was recently recognized by the Puget Sound Regional Council with a Vision 2040 award. (Full disclosure: one of us, David Neiman, has designed most of the Terrace Courtyard townhouses in Seattle.)

Although townhouses with pedestrian courts address the major quarrels most people have with four-packs, their rarity is the collateral damage of the blanket Streamlined Design Review requirement for all townhouse projects. Garden Courtyards and Terrace Courtyards are particularly unfortunate casualties, since these projects involve additional custom design effort, yet they still get dinged with design review—punishment for innovation.

Three Takeaways, Two Solutions, One Cautionary Tale

Five years’ data make clear three things: First, Seattle’s 2011 multifamily code update boosted rowhouses but decimated townhouses. Second, requiring design review quashed the auto-court four-pack but spawned something worse in its place—the auto-court single-family cluster offers the unappealing site layout of what it replaced plus less housing and higher prices. Third, design review obliterated not only its auto-court, four-pack target but all forms of townhouses, including ones that would otherwise be expanding Seattle’s housing stock without propagating ugliness.

Seattle’s low-rise story is a cautionary tale of the sensitive relationship between housing affordability and regulations.
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The solution to this triumvirate of unintended consequences has two prongs. The first is simple: stop requiring design review for townhouses. Assuming that without the design review mandate developers would have built mostly townhouses rather than SF clusters, as they did before 2011, Seattle would currently have as many as 400 additional homes available for ownership, if it had never imposed design review on townhouses.

The second prong of the solution is to create incentives for courtyard townhouse designs. The city could, for example, allow extra floor area per lot to builders who choose Garden or Terrace Courtyard designs and provide shared open spaces equal to 15 percent of the lot area in their townhouse projects. Some may quibble that encouraging a parking structure runs counter to other Cascadian goals and that a better solution is to eliminate off-street parking requirements. We favor eliminating parking requirements. But even if parking is not required, most builders of ownership housing will still provide it, because buyers want it.

Seattle’s low-rise story is a cautionary tale of the sensitive relationship between housing affordability and regulations. The idea of design review (especially if “streamlined”!) sounds reasonable. Who would have suspected that it could swing the whole lowrise housing stock toward SF clusters and rowhouses?

And the same principles apply to larger housing projects that are subject to Seattle’s full-blown design review process. There is no getting around the fact that while design review may improve the appearance and integration of new buildings, the added delay and uncertainty inevitably lead to less housing and higher prices.

Seattle’s 2015 Housing Affordability and Livability Agenda (HALA) report recognized the connections between design review and affordability, and it recommended reforms to “improve predictability and consistency.” In response, the City of Seattle recently embarked on a project to “revamp and refresh” its Design Review Program.

Of course, design review is but one hurdle in the regulatory gauntlet for housing that developers must run. But all the hurdles add up, and municipal planners are known for having trouble finding the eraser end of their pencils. To be clear, tackling affordability doesn’t mean abandoning all regulations. But it does call for far more diligence in assessing the tradeoffs.

Want to learn more about Seattle's HALA plan? Click here.

Event: Pacific Northwest Pledge of Resistance

This Saturday, hundreds of Seattle area residents will gather to formally voice their opposition to a raft of oil, coal, and gas exports out of our Cascadian region. They will also learn more about opportunities to get involved in the work of what has been dubbed the Thin Green Line. Eric de Place will keynote the event, hosted by 350 Seattle.

What: Pacific Northwest Pledge of Resistance: Teach-In

Where: Seattle City Hall, 600 4th Ave, Seattle, WA 98104 (map)

When: Saturday, February 27th, 1:45 – 3:00 PM

Who:

  • Eric de Place, Sightline policy director, event keynote speaker
  • Mike O’Brien, Seattle City Councilmember
  • Sarra Tekola, Women of Color Speak Out, Got Green?
  • Patrick Mazza, Delta 5 Member

RSVP: This event is free and open to the public.

Learn more and RSVP