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Weekend Reading 5/12/17

Eric

I highly recommend Andrew Nikiforuk’s piece at the Tyee, where he spells out the findings of a deeply researched report on LNG projects in British Columbia. The analysis, by Voters Taking Action on Climate Change, shows that the province has startlingly few commonsense provisions to protect against terrorism, hazard zones, and numerous other risks posed by large-scale LNG production and shipping operations.

Seattle City Councilmember emeritus Nick Licata has published a guide on becoming a citizen activist. It’s a manual about how to engage with your community and be an effective advocate with local government. It should be required reading.

Alan

James Forman, Jr.’s new book Locking Up Our Own: Crime and Punishment in Black America may be the best complement and counterpart to Michelle Alexander’s The New Jim Crow yet written. Forman, son of two civil rights leaders from the 1960s and now a Yale law professor, has written a powerfully insightful examination of mass incarceration in the United States. Unlike Alexander’s book, which provocatively but somewhat simplistically argues that the phenomenon is a form of racist social control, Forman argues for a more nuanced and historical understanding of the United States’ conversion into a prison nation. Class joins race in playing a decisive role in his tale, as do particular trends in the drug trade, crime rates, and politics. Racism has a part, but it’s a complicated one. “Mass incarceration,” Forman writes, “is the result of small, distinct steps, each of whose significance becomes more apparent over time, and only when considered in light of later events.”

His book focuses in particular on Washington, DC, where he long served as a public defender. DC (where I also lived for some of the years he describes in the 1980s and 1990s) is a fascinating case study because it was and is a majority African-American city that throughout the period of mass incarceration’s emergence has been led by black politicians, policed by a majority-black and black-led police department, and judged (and lawyered and juried) mostly by African Americans. And still, Washington, DC, marched as swiftly toward mass incarceration as any other jurisdiction in the United States. By exploring this paradox, Forman reveals much that’s less visible in other books I’ve been reading this year on criminal justice (a personal project).

Locking Up Our Own is also sensitively crafted, carried along by profiles of people Forman defended as a lawyer and of various protagonists in the four decade drama: from once-Mayor Marion Barry to once-US Attorney for DC (and later Attorney General) Eric Holder. Highly recommended!

James Forman, Jr., will be speaking at Town Hall in Seattle this Tuesday, May 16. Unfortunately, Seattle is the last stop on his tour.

Keiko

In case you missed it in Sightline Daily this week, Matthew Desmond, author of Evicted, breaks down the ways homeownership is used as an engine of wealth inequity in the United States. He shows how an enormous entitlement in the tax code—the mortgage-interest deduction (MID)—props up home prices and overwhelmingly benefits the wealthy. Throughout the piece, Desmond humanizes the affordable housing shortage by sharing profiles of renters and homeowners that highlight the wealth discrepancy fueled by MID. I was shocked to learn that the average homeowner has 36 times ($195,400) the net worth of the average renter ($5,400). Public subsidies are actually helping those who own homes rather than those who are struggling to find stable housing.

As a renter in a booming city, this article hit me hard since homeownership seems farther and farther out of reach for me and my peers—an unattainable path to financial stability and upward mobility. Here are two excerpts from the piece:

A 15-story public housing tower and a mortgaged suburban home are both government-subsidized, but only one looks (and feels) that way. It is only by recognizing this fact that we can begin to understand why there is so much poverty in the United States today.

Because of rising housing costs and stagnant wages, slightly more than half of all poor renting families in the country spend more than 50 percent of their income on housing costs, and at least one in four spends more than 70 percent. Yet America’s national housing policy gives affluent homeowners large benefits; middle-class homeowners, smaller benefits; and most renters, who are disproportionately poor, nothing. It is difficult to think of another social policy that more successfully multiplies America’s inequality in such a sweeping fashion.

Here’s another housing reality from our neighbors south of Cascadia: a fully-employed math teacher with a master’s degree is homeless in San Francisco because of housing costs. 

Dan

Over the past dozen years author Richard Florida has gone from cheerleading the creative class to issuing dire warnings about how successful creative class cities are at risk of becoming enclaves for the wealthy. Now, I haven’t actually read Florida’s new book, The New Urban Crisis (who reads actual books anymore???), about how “winner-take-all urbanism has deepened inequality, segregation, and poverty—and what cities can do about it.” Fortunately, though, the interwebs have been flush with more digestible commentary, including a series of adapted excerpts at CityLab, the online urbanism outlet Florida co-founded under the banner of the Atlantic Monthly. One such nugget caught my eye because it focuses on the fixes—after all, to us wonks it’s not news that booming cities such as Seattle are becoming victims of their own success because housing costs are out of control. And what really got my wonky juices flowing is that Florida’s recommendations—enact a land value tax; ditch the mortgage interest deduction; provide a basic income; build more transit—get at the structural roots of the problem. Also refreshing is that Florida recognizes that some popular prescriptions are more like band-aids: on rent control and inclusionary zoning, he writes, “while the aims of such policies are admirable, they can be costly and inefficient.”

Anna

Is walking an unrecognized wonder drug? That is, if we do a clever switcheroo in how people get around and how places are built, can a suburban life actually make Americans thinner rather than the opposite? We know (and feel) how sitting all day has a cost, as does a car-centric lifestyle where we shuttle from one activity (even athletic ones) to another rather than biking or walking. (Seattle scores as #2 most “sittingest” big US city, by the way.) As Americans ponder really serious policy questions dictating medical care and costs, healthcare insurance coverage, and pre-existing conditions, it’s also worth considering this:

Eight hours or more a day of sitting nearly doubles the risk of Type 2 diabetes and sharply increases risks for heart disease, cancer and earlier death, according to research from the University of Utah and the University of Colorado. The average American sits more than nine hours a day. Simply walking, on the other hand, is, as one former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention put it, “the closest thing we have to a wonder drug.” That’s not hyperbole: the European Society of Cardiology found a 20-or-so-minute-per-day walk added an average of seven years of life. According to the CDC, more than one out of 10 premature deaths in the US can be pinned squarely on a lack of physical activity, along with more than one-tenth of health care spending. Walking leads to a 14 percent lower risk of breast cancer for women, an American Cancer Society study reported. A Harvard study found that brisk walking or equivalent exercise cut stroke risk in half. Adding in walking three days a week sharply boosted cognitive performance in older adults, a study in the journal Nature reported.

Of course, as the author points out, people drive in large part because their neighborhoods encourage it and sometimes even leave them with no other viable choice. What, then, if their neighborhoods were built to foster walking? Read more for a recipe (or at least the ingredients) for a more walkable place, including transit, safety, inviting commercial pockets in residential areas, and—to get there—different zoning choices.

Tune in to this short radio segment for an important reality-check on questionable terms that we use and hear when talking about people of color (but shouldn’t necessarily or should never, depending). Dr. Ralina Joseph, director of the University of Washington’s Center for Communication, Difference, and Equity, and UW graduate Sade Britt, had a frank conversation with Seattle’s KUOW Race and Equity reporter Patricia Murphy.

Paul Hawken identifies the top 100 things to do to stop climate destruction, by the numbers. He and a team of several dozen research fellows set out to “map, measure, and model” what actually works in several different scenarios, using only peer-reviewed research. The findings take us outside our usual (narrow) thinking about what is going to work (e.g., wind and solar—though they are part of it). Guess what’s top of the list? A combination of educating young girls and family planning (which, he found, together could reduce 120 gigatons of CO2 equivalent by 2050—more than on- and offshore wind power combined (99 GT).) He looks at other ideas from heat pumps to ride sharing to agricultural practices too. Dave Roberts talked to him about his new book, Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming.

Aven

This week, I learned that two of the ecological problems that I’m most concerned about—electronic waste (e-waste) and rainforest deforestation—may have powerful solutions in the near future. Researchers from Stanford have come up with a completely biodegradable platform for circuits. It’s environmentally friendly, non-toxic, and will hold up to high temperatures and immersion in water, yet fully disintegrates within 30 days when exposed to a mild acid. Besides potentially solving the 50-million-ton-per-year e-waste problem, the device also has potential applications to human medicine, in the form of absorbable skin patches or implants.

And in Brazil, where the farming of soy beans is largely responsible for forest loss, a new study has found that a 2006 moratorium on soy grown from newly deforested land seems to have been quite effective. Thankfully, the soy industry has decided to renew the soy moratorium indefinitely. Although deforestation is still an enormous problem, knowing this strategy worked for soy could lead to similar policies for other common crops grown in areas with high deforestation rates.

I also came across this blog post on maintaining momentum in difficult times, and this quote which I especially like:

Remarkable things have happened in the past, and this is our moment to step up and do remarkable things. The fact that we don’t know how it’s going to turn out is no reason not to dedicate our lives to ambitious change.

 

One Hundred Reasons to Be Thankful

We asked and you delivered. Between our first gift at 12:33 am to our last gift at 11:56 pm, our Sightline donors gave—and gave generously—yesterday during the Seattle Foundation’s annual GiveBIG day of giving. Thanks to (exactly!) 100 sustainability-lovin’ donors, Sightline raised over $17,000 in the span of 24 hours!

We are humbled and impressed by how Sightline’s supporters rallied on our behalf yesterday to help create our shared vision of a sustainable Northwest. Our donors, like those who gave during GiveBIG, make our work possible, and propel our mission into a movement with the power to create a green economy, strong communities, and a healthy environment.

From the bottom of our evergreen hearts, thank you.

With gratitude,
The Sightline Team

P.S. Missed GiveBIG, but still want to get in on the fun(draising)? Good news! Our Spring Fund Drive is still underway through May 19th. Make a donation here.

 

Were Fossil Fuel Exports the Big Loser in BC’s Election?

BC residents took to the polls Tuesday to elect a new Parliament—and for fossil fuel exports a lot rode on the electoral outcome.

A win by the right-of-center BC Liberal Party could have spelled doom for BC coal exports, particularly from US companies shipping their wares through southern BC. Liberal leader Christy Clark had taken an unexpectedly strong stand against coal shipments to overseas power plants: she first sent a letter to federal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asking for a complete ban on such exports, and later vowed to levy a prohibitively stiff fee on coal exports if the federal government didn’t act. The move was initially portrayed as little more than a bargaining chip in a trade dispute over softwood lumber import duties imposed by the Trump administration. But Premier Clark doubled down, claiming that she’d take action on coal exports even if the lumber duties were lifted. In short, a Liberal win would have been abysmal news for US coal companies hoping to ship coal to Asia.

On the other hand, a win by the New Democratic Party (NDP) would have created huge obstacles for oil and natural gas exports. Christy Clark’s put liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at the center of the Liberals’ economic platform, despite the fact that collapsing LNG prices had rendered most of those projects uneconomic without significant government subsidies. Just so, Clark’s party had been supportive of Kinder Morgan’s proposed expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which could allow a massive increase in oil exports from Alberta’s tar sands. But the New Democrats actively opposed the Trans Mountain expansion, and could have derailed provincial LNG export projects as well. (Curiously, the NDP remained largely on the sidelines during the debate over US coal exports, going so far as to call Clark’s proposed export ban “reckless.”)

But as it turns out, neither of those two parties won a clear-cut victory: with 44 seats needed for a Parliamentary majority, the Liberals have won 43 seats, the New Dems 41 seats, and the Green Party holds 3 seats. And contrary to many media reports, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the Liberals have “won” a minority government. Instead, as this useful primer points out, there are at least 4 possible outcomes for this election. In at least two scenarios, the Greens—who oppose all fossil fuel exports—would in the position of being kingmakers in the new government, extracting significant major concessions from whichever party they partner with to form a majority government.  So far, it appears that the Greens’ top priority is to get big money out of BC politics, but it’s at least conceivable that they could negotiate significant environmental concessions as well—perhaps winning blanket opposition to fossil fuel exports of all stripes. After all, Green Party leader Andrew Weaver has said that the Trans Mountain pipeline has “no place on our coast,” while dismissing the Liberals’ LNG-obsession as “nonsense.”

To throw more confusion into the mix, the vote count is incredibly close in some ridings (districts). In one riding, the NDP candidate is winning by just 9 votes, a margin that will trigger an automatic recount. If the New Dems lose that seat in the recount, it will be a 44-40-3 split and the Liberals will have a narrow majority. That would still be bad news for US coal exporters, but could mean a modest boost for the prospects of LNG projects and the Trans Mountain Pipeline.

Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait for a few weeks to know who will actually form the government. I’m afraid I’ll be on pins and needles for a while longer. But regardless of the precise outcome, I imagine that some would-be fossil fuel exporters will be mightily disappointed once the dust settles.

 

“Where Is My Generation Going to Live?”

“I am your neighbor. Why do you not want me, and people like me, to be welcome in your community?”

Those are the words of YIMBY Action executive director Laura Foote Clark as she testified at a San Francisco Planning Commission meeting last week about proposed rule changes for in-law apartments and backyard cottages.

Clark apparently holds the radical belief that bedrooms for people are more important than bedrooms for cars. Madness! Check it out (and give it a minute for the two previous commenters who set up the context):

Last summer San Francisco passed legislation permitting accessory dwelling units (ADUs) in most of the city. Then in January the state of California enacted a law that requires local municipalities to allow ADUs in all single-family zones. San Francisco is currently debating proposals to liberalize its ADU rules and bring them into alignment with the state law.

San Francisco desperately needs more homes of all kinds to quell a massive shortage that has sent prices into the stratosphere. In-law apartments and backyard cottages are a gentle way to add new homes to existing neighborhoods with little impact on communities, yet they still face heated opposition from some residents. Clark’s passionate testimony captures the frustration of those who see the disconnect, as she put it: “Livability is really a fundamental question here. Where are we going to live?”

 

Seattle’s Largest Day of Giving Is Today

As a Sightline reader, you understand that we are all in this place together, sharing its burdens and benefits, rising or falling together. And thanks to you, Cascadia—and Sightline—continue to find solutions together. Over the past year, we’ve seen fossil fuel export projects get rejected one after another along our coast, democracy reforms rolling forward, policies taking shape that support equitable growth in our urban centers, and Sightline’s own audience and media coverage continuing to set new records.

Your readership, in addition to donations from our hundreds of donors, makes all this possible. We need your support to keep this work going. Today, May 10th, Sightline—along with hundreds of other Seattle-area nonprofits—is participating in GiveBIG, the Seattle Foundation’s annual 24-hour giving event.

If you’ve ever found any of our work, on subjects from coal finance to family friendly cities, to be helpful and informative, I encourage you to make a gift to Sightline today.

Want more incentive? Here are three simple reasons why you should GiveBIG to Sightline today:

One: Be part of the community

GiveBIG is a one-day-only online giving event to raise funds for nonprofit organizations serving Greater Seattle. Each year hundreds of nonprofits participate, sourcing millions of dollars from their local communities. Last year, over 45,000 individuals contributed more than 22 million dollars for their local nonprofits. It’s an inspiring showing of generosity to be a part of, and a great way to contribute to a sustainable future.

Two: Dollars for Change

Throughout the day, some lucky donors—maybe you?— will be picked at random and their chosen nonprofit will receive an extra $2,500 boost from Seattle Foundation’s Dollars for Change program. The more of you who make a gift, and the earlier you make it, the better Sightline’s chances are of securing an extra $2,500 today.

Three: You can make sustainability possible

A gift to Sightline is a gift to your region at large. You have a chance to support the innovative research, long-term policy solutions, and communication tools used by thousands of citizens and leaders working on our region’s most critical issues. We need your help to keep the research streaming for smart, sustainable changes in the Northwest and beyond.

Can Sightline count on you to help us create smart solutions for a sustainable Northwest? GiveBIG today to Sightline and watch your gift transform into smart research, user-friendly graphics and reports, and real policy wins for a sustainable Northwest.

GiveBIG to Sightline today!

Sightline’s Guide to Methods for Electing an Executive Officer

Representative democracy gives people the power to put their values into action. People can elect leaders who care about the things they care about and then hold them accountable for taking action on those issues. In the United States and Canada, people care about climate change. In Cascadia, people care about protecting their communities from dirty, outdated fossil fuels. So why are elected leaders not aligned with voters on climate change and other issues their constituents care about?

Because the way most North American governments elect executive officers—such as mayors, governors, and the president—doesn’t engage people, doesn’t empower people to vote their values, and doesn’t necessarily elect leaders with broad support. For example, only around 10 percent of US citizens chose Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the presidential primaries, leaving many general election voters feeling forced into choosing the “lesser of two evils” rather than participating wholeheartedly in electing a leader they could get behind. In part due to lack of good options on the ballot, ugly, negative campaigns, and the feeling that elected officials don’t represent them, the United States has dismal voter turnout rates.

Could a different way of voting give voters more voice, nurture more issues-driven campaigns, and elect leaders with broader appeal? Which voting systems would give Cascadian reformers better results? This article gives Sightline’s take on what is important in a voting system for electing an executive office held by a single person at a time (like a mayor or governor) and how different voting systems measure up. Although most Cascadian jurisdictions use the same voting method to elect the president and the legislature, the voting system options and considerations for electing legislatures are quite different because more than one person serves in the legislature at a time. (A future article will address voting systems for electing legislative bodies consisting of more than one person at a time—like congress, parliament, state legislatures, and city councils.)

What needs fixing?

The US and Canada use “vote for one” elections that limit voters’ choices and stifle healthy discussion of the issues people care about. Specifically, using the current system to elect mayors, governors, and the president, we suffer from the following problems:

  • Voters have to vote for the “lesser of two evils.” You should be able to vote for at least one candidate you support. Yet you must often vote for one of two front-runner candidates and not for a minor-party candidate, or a candidate who was eliminated in the primary, who you like better. You only have one vote, so you grudgingly give it to the least objectionable candidate you know has a shot at winning. When voters feel they don’t have a chance to vote for somebody they support, they may not vote at all. And, as we have seen, not voting can be as significant a move as casting a ballot.
  • Unpopular or extreme candidates can win. A candidate vying to be the only person representing a whole city, county, state, or country should have broad appeal. Yet, in the current system, a candidate who is unpopular with a broad share of the electorate can win. He can either split the majority vote and win with a mere plurality (in a three- or four-way race), or he can win over enough of the few, partisan voters who participate in party primaries to become the only viable option on the general ballot in a jurisdiction that is “safe” for his party.
  • Personal attacks work better than discussion of issues. Negative campaigning works in our “vote for one” system. Because voters can only express an opinion about one candidate, candidates are rewarded for turning voters off to opponents and aren’t rewarded for reaching out or building bridges to voters who have already chosen another favorite. Negative campaigning amongst a narrow field of candidates means voters don’t hear their issues discussed, and they may find little reason to tune into campaigns and engage in civic life.

Criteria for executive races

Political scientists and mathematicians have come up with many criteria by which to evaluate voting systems, resulting in complex tables like this one. But, unfortunatelyno system is perfect. Reformers have to decide what they believe is most important to fostering the healthiest democracy. (Note: The Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance has a tool that translates criteria into priorities and selects the best voting systems for you based on your stated priorities.)

We at Sightline came up with these four criteria to help determine how well a voting system can solve the problems described above:

  • Voters have a variety of options: Candidates with diverse views can run, and voters can vote for them without worrying they might be “throwing their vote away” on a minor-party candidate, say. Instead of limiting voters’ options, the election method tends to expand voters’ choices, welcoming more candidates and citizens to participate in elections
  • Winners are bridge-builders with broad appeal: A candidate with an energized but narrow base, unpopular with the broader public, can’t win. Instead, the election method tends to reward candidates who connect with a broad swath of the electorate
  • Campaigns are positive and inclusive: Candidates’ best strategy is to engage with many voters and discuss the issues that are important to them.
  • The change creates momentum for further voting reform efforts.

How each system measures up

Now that we know what principles rise to the top for Sightline, let’s look at how well different election methods do for our four criteria. (If you are unfamiliar with or need a refresher on different types of voting systems before you dive into the analysis below, see our Glossary of Voting Systems for Electing Executive Officers.) We have plenty of empirical evidence for how  Plurality, Top-Two Runoff, and Instant Runoff perform in elections. We have some evidence for how Approval Voting performs in student body and professional organization elections, but unfortunately, we have little or no evidence of how Score and Score Runoff perform, so we must speculate based on the systems’ characteristics.

(Click on the headings below to expand or collapse the discussion of each criterion.)

The most common voting systems in place in the US and Canada today are Plurality (vote for one, and the candidate with the most votes wins) and Top-Two Runoff (vote for one in the primary; the top two advance to the general; vote for one in the general election).

Additional candidates, beyond the two major-party mainstays, might appear on a Plurality ballot, but they usually receive very few votes because voters don’t want to throw away their only vote or spoil the election for their preferred major-party candidate. American voters all know how this works: if a majority of voters prefer both Nader and Gore to Bush, but split their votes between Nader and Gore, then Bush could win with a plurality (more votes than any other candidate, but less than half the votes). So voters cast their one vote for Gore, and Nader wins very few votes and often doesn’t even run.

Under Top-Two Runoff, voters see just two candidates on the general election ballot. The general election campaign is usually exclusively shaped by the two major parties, with no opportunity to bring other viewpoints into the discussion. Because they can’t make it to the general election, Top-Two Runoff discourages additional candidates from participating even in the primary.

Other voting systems allow more candidates to appear on the ballot and allow voters to express opinions about more than one candidate. However, only one makes it safe for voters to express an opinion about multiple candidates. Instant Runoff Voting (a single-winner form of Ranked-Choice Voting) lets voters rank candidates in order of preference on a single ballot and then simulates a series of runoffs. Under Instant Runoff Voting, it is safe to rank a weak third-party candidate like Nader (a third-party candidate who is in third or lower place). If you rank him first and he is eliminated, your vote transfers to your next-ranked candidate who is still in the running.

For example, say you ranked Terry Tea Party first, Larry Libertarian second, Ronald Republican third, and, just in case, Deborah Democrat fourth. Your vote would count for the Tea Party candidate in the first round; if she was eliminated, your vote would transfer to the Libertarian if he was still in the race; and if he was eliminated, your vote would transfer to the Republican if he was still in the race (probably, since he is a major-party candidate). If, by chance, the Republican had also been eliminated and the Democrat was running off against the Progressive, your vote would go to the Democrat. Or, if you ranked the Republican first, your vote would count for him in every round so long as he was not eliminated.

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy.

IRV can create a “center squeeze” situation where a candidate in the ideological center (likely a major-party candidate) could have won if a candidate to one side of him had not run, but because he ran, the candidate on the other side won. The one time this happened, in Burlington, Vermont, the Republican (on the right) and the Progressive (on the left) got the first and second most votes while the Democrat (in between them) in third place was eliminated. In the runoff between the Republican and Progressive, the Progressive won. But if the Progressive or the Republican had not made it to the runoff, the Democrat would have won against the remaining candidate. For example, if Republican voters who preferred the Democrat over the Progressive (about 17 percent of Burlington voters) could have somehow known that the Republican, who was polling in first place in a plurality election, would lose to the Progressive once the Democrat was eliminated, they could have strategically ranked the Democrat first to help him, not their favorite the Republican, make it to the runoff and beat the Progressive.

Because this situation rarely occurs (once in 142 US elections that release full data—0.7 percent of US elections—and no reports of it happening in a hundred years in Australia, though they don’t release full data so it is impossible to know for sure); and because it is difficult for voters to know ahead of time that their favorite, who is polling in first or second place, will lose; and because it is unlikely that voters will abandon their favorite and instead vote for a less-preferred candidate who is trailing in the polls; and because the candidate they would betray is a strong candidate—in first or second place—and the candidate who gets squeezed out is likely a major-party candidate; the center-squeeze situation is unlikely to discourage additional candidates from running in IRV elections or voters from voting for them.

The center candidate risks being squeezed out in any runoff system. If Burlington had used Top-Two Runoff, the Democrat would not have made it to the runoff. If it had used Score Runoff, he might not have made it to the runoff if Progressive or Republican voters had given him low scores (an average of 1.3 or lower) to protect their favorites.

Score Runoff Voting, Score Voting, and Approval Voting all let voters give each candidate a score. In Score and Score Runoff Voting, possible scores might range from 0 to 5, 0 to 9, or some other range, and all the scores are added or averaged. Under Approval Voting, the score is implicitly a 1 or a 0 because it is a vote or no vote; the ballot looks just like a Plurality ballot except you can vote for as many candidates as you want. Bucklin Voting uses a ranked-choice ballot but adds votes together like Approval Voting. All of these systems are flawed because they do not support what voting experts call “Later-No-Harm”: you can harm your favorite candidate by giving any other candidate a score or vote. When voters realize this, they often “bullet vote” (only score or vote for one candidate). If voters know which candidates are viable and which are not, they might vote for their favorite of the viable candidates and also any other candidates they like, so long as they are sure those other can’t beat their favorite.

Experience suggests that most voters using Approval and Score give their favorite candidate the maximum score or rank and all other candidates a minimal score or no vote. Candidates beyond the two major parties would likely not get many votes in these systems. Voters could figure out it is safe to give a minor-party candidate a vote or score as long as you are sure she will lose. But the major parties would encourage voters to bullet vote, and, to reassure voters it is safe to vote for them, minor-party candidates would have to convince voters they are sure to lose, which is a dog of a campaign strategy.

Score Runoff Voting should, in theory, encourage voters to give a maximum score to their favorite and also a score to their second-favorite, so that if their favorite is eliminated they could still get a vote for their second-favorite in the instant runoff. This would allow for a broader field as candidates ask voters for their maximum or a back-up score.

No single person can perfectly represent all the people in a city, state, or country. In other words, there is no perfect winner for an executive office held by just one person at a time. Different people have different ideas about who the “most right” winner is. The candidate whom a majority of voters support? The candidate whom most voters would choose over any other individual candidate in a head-to-head race? The candidate the fewest voters strongly object to (even if that also means that fewer voters strongly support him)? The candidate whom voters most strongly adore, even if many voters object?

No voting system can guarantee the winner is all of the above. For Sightline’s purposes, let’s set a lower bar: an unpopular or extreme candidate can’t win and become the only president, governor, or mayor for an entire country, state, or city. In this context, the definition of unpopular or extreme is: a candidate a majority of voters don’t want. One way of measuring this is that a majority of voters prefer every other candidate above this one (voting experts call this the Majority Loser criterion). Another measurement is that the candidate would lose to every other viable contender in a head-to-head contest, meaning a majority of voters would prefer any of the other candidates over him (voting experts call this the Condorcet Loser criterion).

If a voting system allows a candidate to win even if a majority of voters didn’t want him, it encourages candidates to fire up a narrow base of supporters while ignoring the majority of voters. This can lead to a divisive governing style and discontent with a system that would deliver such an unrepresentative executive. If a voting system guarantees that candidates without broad appeal cannot win, it encourages candidates to reach out more broadly to win over a majority of voters, as well as to govern more moderately, with the majority of voters in mind.

Instant Runoff Voting, Top-Two Runoff, and Score Runoff Voting meet the Majority Loser and Condorcet Loser criteria: they will never elect a candidate whom a majority of voters did not want or one who would lose to every other candidate in a head-to-head. The final head-to-head runoff in these three systems protects against an extreme candidate. However, in jurisdictions that hold party primaries and are “safe” for one party, an extreme candidate could win his party’s primary and then go on to win the Top-Two Runoff general election because voters are loathe to vote for the opposing major party. If instead Instant Runoff Voting or Score Runoff Voting were used in a single, high-turnout general election, it would elect a leader with broad appeal.

Plurality, Approval, and Score Voting fail both the Majority Loser and Condorcet Loser criteria: they can elect a candidate whom a majority of of voters did not want. In Plurality voting, this happens when the majority of voters split their votes between two similar candidates and the third, least popular candidate, wins with a mere plurality of the vote. The same can happen if most voters bullet vote in Approval Voting. Score Voting is, in a sense, designed to elect (this definition of) an unpopular or extreme candidate because it values intensity of preference over numbers of voters: a minority of voters can elect their favorite, even though he lacks broad appeal, by giving him a maximum score, beating the more broadly appealing candidate who received less than maximum scores from a majority of voters.

Bucklin passes Majority Loser but fails Condorcet Loser.

Negative campaigns don’t invite citizens to participate in civic discourse, and they take up airtime that could otherwise be spent discussing issues that are important to voters. Negative campaigns have other insidious negative effects, such as dissuading women from running for public office. To encourage positive campaigns, a voting system must reward candidates for reaching out to many voters, including those who might already prefer another candidate. Voting systems reward negative campaigns when a candidate can win by whipping up a narrow base of support, or can increase his chances of winning by insulting opponents.

Plurality Voting rewards negative campaigns because, to win, a candidate only needs to energize his or her base, not appeal broadly to a majority of voters.

Instant Runoff Voting has proven to produce more positive, civil campaigns. Because candidates can benefit from receiving second- or third-choice rankings, it is in their interest to court their opponents’ voters rather than ignore or alienate them. (Watch Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges explain in this video.)

Approval Voting could discourage negative campaigns as candidates urge voters to include them as one of several candidates they vote for. However, as discussed above, voters can harm their favorite by voting for additional candidates, leading to the real-world experience that Approval Voting ends up looking a lot like Plurality Voting. So candidates might campaign just like Plurality.

Score Voting could lead to even more negative campaigns than Plurality Voting. Like Plurality Voting, Score Voting rewards candidates for energizing their base, but it additionally rewards candidates for provoking lower scores for their opponents. A candidate could win a campaign under Score Voting by whipping her the base into a frenzy of maximum scores while sowing doubts amongst her opponents’ supporters. Rather than moderating her message to win scores from more voters but risking alienating her base, she can focus on tearing down her opponent to both fire up her base and undermine other voters’ confidence in their candidate enough that they give that other candidate less than the maximum score. Score Voting could prompt a race to the bottom in terms of negative campaigning.

Score Runoff Voting, a hybrid of Score Voting and Instant Runoff Voting, would likely be somewhere between the two in terms of campaign tone. Because voters would want to give some non-zero score to candidates other than their favorite, it would be in a candidate’s interest not to alienate her opponent’s voters in hopes they will give her a score. But as in Score Voting, a candidate could be harmed if her voters give another candidate a score, so she would want to encourage them to give her the maximum and give her opponents a minimum score, creating an incentive for painting her opponent in a negative light.

Any reform must overcome the inertia of the status quo. Any reform that gives minor parties more power risks pushback from the two major parties. Facing into these headwinds, reformers need to know that each hard-fought win will build momentum for the next.

In the United States, Ranked-Choice Voting is the only voting reform with momentum. Thirteen US cities and counties already use it; the state of Maine just adopted it for state and federal elections; and here in Cascadia, Benton County passed an Instant Runoff Voting initiative in 2016. In 2017, 18 states have introduced ranked-choice voting bills—11 states have Republican co-sponsors, and 13 states have Democratic co-sponsors.

Instant Runoff Voting (a.k.a. single-winner Ranked-Choice Voting) can also build momentum towards a more powerful reform—proportional representation in multi-winner elections. As more American voters become familiar with a ranked-choice ballot, it could make it easier to introduce the system into a multi-winner ranked-choice election (a.k.a. “Single Transferable Vote”)—more on this in our Guide to Voting Systems for Electing Legislative Bodies, publishing next week.

Score Runoff Voting is building momentum in Oregon. It also has a multi-winner form, but it may not achieve as fair results as multi-winner ranked-choice voting—more on this in our Guide to Methods for Electing Legislative Bodies,.

Conclusion

Based on what’s currently failing or out of balance in executive elections in the United States and Canada, Sightline judges Instant Runoff Voting as currently the best reform to pursue. It allows a diversity of candidates from major and minor parties to run and win votes. It nurtures more positive campaigns. It rewards candidates for building bridges to many voters and blocks extreme candidates from becoming the only mayor or president that a city or country has. And it has momentum in the United States.

Score Runoff Voting deserves experimentation to see how it performs in the real world.

Top-Two Runoff and Approval Voting offer improvements over Plurality Voting, but not as much improvement as Instant Runoff and Score Runoff.

Plurality Voting is clearly an inferior option on every criteria. Score Voting also seems particularly undesirable, because it might incentivize even more negative campaigns and result in divisive, extreme candidates winning office even more often than does Plurality Voting.

Our current “choose one” method of electing mayors, governors, and presidents is fraught with problems. But Ranked-Choice Voting, and possible Score Runoff, could give voters more options on the ballot, elect executives with broad appeal, and generate more positive, issue-oriented campaigns.

 

A note about partisan gridlock, sound policy-making, and reflective representation

Astute readers may note that the criteria above do not address the pressing problems of overcoming partisan polarization and gridlock, electing more diverse representatives, and fostering problem-solving and sound policy-making. Sightline passionately believes in reforming voting systems to solve these problems. They all fall within the provenance of the legislative branch, and we discuss them in our forthcoming Guide to Methods for Electing Legislative Bodies for electing multi-seat legislative bodies such as federal, state, and provincial legislatures and city and county councils. Better voting systems for electing legislative bodies can elect diverse bodies that reflect all voters, incentivize consensual problem-solving over partisan gridlock, deliver broadly supported policy solutions, and help strengthen civic life.

Download a printable version of this guide

Glossary of Methods for Electing Executive Officers

In the wake of the 2016 US Presidential election, many Americans are wondering if there is a better way to elect political leaders. During the 2015 Canadian election, voters supported the Liberal party’s claim that 2015 would be the last time Canada would use archaic “first-past-the-post” voting. What other options do we have for electing an executive officer such as president, governor, mayor, secretary of state, or attorney general? This glossary summarizes how different voting systems for electing a mayor or president work, what supporters and critics say about them, and how they have played out in real life.

This document does not describe all the possible voting systems; there are far too many to list here. Nor does it detail all of the quirks of each system. Rather, it is meant as a quick reference guide to the different systems that have been used in Cascadia or that advocates propose for use here. To learn more about Sightline’s recommendations regarding these systems, see our Guide to Voting Systems for Electing an Executive Officer.

This Glossary and Guide are specifically about electing what we are calling “executive” positions that only one person holds at a time, such as a president or mayor. Different electoral systems can be used to elect legislative bodies made up of more than one person, such as a state house of representatives, city or county councils, and school boards. (To learn more about the options for electing legislative bodies, see our Glossary of Voting Systems for Electing a Legislative Body and our recommendations on those options next week.)

Considerations or tradeoffs

No voting system is perfect. Each system involves tradeoffs, which can be measured by how well the system complies with various mathematical criteria. But ultimately, the voting system you prefer will depend on which aspect is most important to you (see what is important to Sightline in our guide). Below are a few—though again, not all—criteria that supporters and critics may point to when comparing voting systems for electing an executive such as president or mayor.

(Click on the criteria below to expand or collapse each item.)

A simple ballot is easier for voters to understand and easier for counties to count. A more complex ballot gives voters the opportunity to express more nuanced views about the candidates.

If a voter would get a better election result by voting “strategically” or “tactically” instead of “honestly,” that system puts pressure on voters to figure out the best strategy and could give an unfair advantage to voters who do discover the best strategy.

Political scientists and mathematicians have described mathematical properties that might incentivize some form of strategic voting. They have also described criteria for determining whether a system is immune to that particular strategy (it passes) or could reward that type of strategy (it fails). These criteria can’t tell you how often an election using this method might pass or fail, or how likely voters are to strategically vote, it only says whether it could fail in some scenarios (in which case it fails) or would never fail in any scenario (in which case it passes).

  • If you can safely vote for one of two similar or nearly identical candidates you prefer without fear of helping a different candidate win, the system is resistant to vote splitting, spoilers, and clones. In systems that fail, voters would need to organize around one of the similar candidates, or prevent similar candidates from running, to prevent a different, less popular candidate from winning. In systems that are resistant, voters can give high scores or ranks to similar candidates, confident that one of them will beat the different, less-preferred candidate.
    • Pass: No system is completely immune to all spoilers, vote splitting, and clones
    • Resistant to spoilers, vote splitting, and clones: Approval, Score, Score Runoff, Top-Two Runoff, Instant Runoff, Bucklin
    • Fail: Plurality
  • If you can safely rank or score additional less-preferred candidates without harming your favorite or more preferred candidates, the system passes the Later-No-Harm” criterion. In systems that add your scores for all candidates, scoring a less preferred candidate could boost him past your favorite, causing your favorite to lose. In Approval, Bucklin, and Score, if your favorite was in first place, your vote for your less preferred candidate could vault him to first. In Score Runoff, if your favorite was in second place, your score for your less preferred candidate could vault him to second, bumping your favorite out of the runoff. When voters realize a system fails, they may vote like they would in a “vote for one” system—“bullet vote”—give a maximum score only to their favorite candidate. Voters are less likely to bullet vote in Score Runoff Voting because the runoff provides a countervailing motivation for voters to give at least some score to a backup candidate to make sure they have a vote in the runoff if only their backup makes it. 
    • Passes: Instant Runoff
    • Fails: Approval, Score, Bucklin, Score Runoff
    • Not applicable: Plurality, Top-Two Runoff
  • If you can safely vote for or give a top-ranking or high score to your favorite candidate, the system passes the “Favorite Betrayal” criterion, so called because systems that fail this criterion may encourage voters who know their favorite can’t win to “betray” their favorite and instead vote for or score or rank a less-preferred but more likely to win candidate higher (for example, to “betray” Bernie and vote for Hillary). If it is clear to voters that their favorite can’t win but another candidate they like can win, they may strategically vote for their preferred viable candidate instead of their favorite in systems that fail this criterion.
    • Passes: Approval, Score, Bucklin
    • Fails: Plurality, Instant Runoff, Score Runoff
  • If you can be sure that you would not counterintuitively cause a candidate to lose by ranking her higher or cause her to win by ranking her lower, the system passes the “monotonicity” criterion. These anomalous results are a product of the runoff: if ranking a candidate lower than a weaker opponent would help that weaker opponent make it to the runoff against her she can win, and if ranking her higher than a weaker opponent helps a stronger opponent instead reach the runoff, she could lose to the stronger candidate. Technically, this criterion only applies to ranking systems where ranking one candidate higher requires another candidate to move down the preference list. If the criterion applied to rating systems as causing a candidate to lose by rating them higher, without changing any other candidates’ scores, then all the rating systems pass. Score Runoff uses rating in the first round and ranking in the second round, so if the definition requires ranking one candidate higher than another to ensure your runoff vote would go to the candidate you decided to rank higher, then SRV fails. In systems that fail this criterion, if voters could know exactly how everyone else will vote, a group of voters could, in the small number of instances where this criterion comes into play, strategically try to elevate a weaker opponent to the runoff to help their favorite win. In reality, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to gain enough information about other voter’s behavior to develop a strategy based on monotonicity, and risky to do so in case you inadvertently cause your favorite to lose by strategically ranking him lower. 
    • Passes: Approval, Score, Plurality, Bucklin
    • Fails: Instant Runoff, Top-Two Runoff
    • Depends on the definition: Score Runoff

“Favorite Betrayal” and “Later-No-Harm” are two sides of the same coin. Which criterion you think is more important comes down to how strongly you think voters feel about their favorite candidate compared to their second-favorite. If you think most voters feel very strongly about their favorite and would not be willing to do anything that might hurt him (“I want Bernie to win, and even though Hillary is not terrible, I would not do anything that might help her beat Bernie”) then you prefer Instant Runoff Voting because it lets the Bernie voter safely express support for Hillary without hurting Bernie. In contrast, with Approval and Score Voting, giving a score to Hillary could hurt Bernie, so voters with a strong preference will only vote for Bernie, just like in a Plurality election.

On the other hand, if you think that voters only weakly prefer their favorite and would be willing for their favorite to lose to their second-favorite (“I like Bernie, but I’d also be happy if Hillary won”), or that they don’t particularly care who wins so longs as their least-favorite loses, then you prefer Approval and Score Voting, which makes it safe to give your favorite Bernie a top score without hurting your second-favorite, Hillary. In contrast, with Instant Runoff Voting, in the narrow case where Bernie is strong enough to make it to the runoff but sure to lose to Trump, and Hillary is too weak to make it to the runoff but could beat Trump if she did, Bernie voters who would be happy for Hillary to win or who mostly want Trump to lose would be better off ranking Hillary above Bernie.

The winner should be the candidate most voters support, right? But how do you measure what “most voters support” means? That could mean the candidate that a majority of voters prefer. Or it could mean the candidate with the most overall intensity of support—so a candidate that one group of voters loves, but whom the majority dislike, would win instead of a candidate that a majority of voters weakly prefer. Or it could mean victory for the candidate whom many voters love and a majority of voters find at least acceptable.

Different systems can guarantee that candidates meeting certain conditions will always win or never win, including:

  • A system that meets the “Majority” criterion guarantees that, if a majority of voters choose a candidate as their favorite, she will win.
    • Passes: Instant Runoff, Bucklin, Plurality, Top-Two Runoff
    • Depends on the definition: Approval, Score Runoff
    • Fails: Score
  • A system that meets the “Mutual majority” criterion guarantees that, if there is a group of candidates that every voter prefers to every candidate outside that group, then one of the candidates in that group will win. In other words, if a majority of voters lean left, then one of the left-leaning candidates will win.
    • Passes: Instant Runoff, Bucklin
    • Fails: Plurality, Approval, Score
  • A system that meets the “Condorcet Winner” criterion guarantees that, if a candidate would beat the other top candidates in a head-to-head contest, she will win. In other words, when offered only two options, most voters prefer her to the other option. This could be the most broadly acceptable candidate, or it could be the “lesser of two evils” for most voters.
    • Passes: None
  • A system that meets the “Condorcet Loser” criterion guarantees that, if a candidate would lose to the other top candidates in a head-to-head contest, he cannot win. In other words, when offered only two options, voters would never prefer him to the other option.
    • Passes: Top-Two Runoff, Instant Runoff, Score Runoff
    • Fails: Plurality, Approval, Score, Bucklin

Voting systems

(Click on the voting system below to expand or collapse each one.)

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy.

Also called: “first-past-the-post, “winner-take-all,” “simple majority,” or “vote for one.”

In Plurality Voting, each voter votes for just one candidate. The candidate with the most votes wins, even if he only won a plurality (more than any other candidate) and not a majority (more than half) of the votes. For example, in Oregon’s 1990 gubernatorial race a conservative independent pulled votes from the Republican, allowing the Democrat to win with just 46 percent of the vote.

Supporters say
  • The Plurality Voting ballot is simple.
  • The vote-counting is simple.
  • Americans and Canadians all know how to do it.
  • It seems fair: the person with the most votes wins.
Critics say
  • Voters can’t vote for their favorite candidate under Plurality Voting: you have only one vote, so you may have to hold your nose and strategically give that vote to a candidate you think has a chance to win, which is almost always a major-party candidate. Many people feel they are voting for the lesser of two evils.
  • If voters don’t strategically vote for a major-party candidate, a third-party candidate can “spoil” the election, splitting the majority of voters who supported either the third-party candidate or the most similar major-party candidate and electing the “wrong” candidate—the major-party candidate that a majority of voters did not want. The best-known example, of course, is when Nader split votes with Gore, allowing Bush to win the US presidency in 2000.
Experience says

The pressure to strategically vote for your preferred major-party candidate is real and common: commentators often (rightfully) brow-beat voters who consider voting for a third-party candidate, pointing out that by voting their conscience, they can throw the election to the candidate they like least: “A vote for Jill Stein is a vote for Donald Trump,” or “a vote for Gary Johnson is a vote for Hillary Clinton.” The spoiler effect is real and can elect a candidate that a majority of voters didn’t want.

Also called: Two-Round System, “majority threshold,” “absolute majority,” or top-two open primary.

Top-Two Runoff is also a “vote for one” system. All Washington elections (other than for the US president) and many non-partisan Oregon elections use Top-Two Runoff. Each voter votes for one candidate in an initial or primary election. In many Oregon cities, if one candidate wins a majority in the primary, she wins the race. If not, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. In most Washington elections, the top two vote-getters in the open primary advance to the general election. In the general or runoff election, each voter again gets one vote, and the candidate with the most votes wins.

Supporters say
  • The Top-Two Runoff ballot is simple.
  • The vote-counting is simple.
  • Americans and Canadians all know how to do it.
  • It eliminates the spoiler effect because there are only two candidates in the general election, and it guarantees that the winner received more than half of the votes cast.
Critics say
  • Few voters participate in primaries, and the voters who do participate are usually older, whiter, and more partisan than general election voters. As a result, a small, skewed group of voters selects the two candidates that general election voters must choose between, sometimes yielding unrepresentative or disappointing results. For example, far-right voters in the Republican primary might select a far-right candidate, and in a Republican-leaning city he might win a majority of votes in the general, but the majority of voters would not feel he represents them well.
  • A spoiler effect can still occur in the Top-Two primary, forcing general election voters to choose between two unappealing candidates.
Experience says

In Washington State in 2016, the majority of voters split their votes between three Democratic candidates in the open primary election for State Treasurer, leaving two Republicans—who together won less than half the primary votes—to advance to the general ballot. General election voters had no choice but to vote for a Republican, even though all but one other statewide political offices in the state are held by Democrats. The three Democrats “spoiled” the primary for each other, leaving general election voters with an unsatisfactory choice between two candidates who both likely only appealed to a minority of voters.

Also called: “single-winner ranked-choice voting,” “preferential voting,” or “the Alternative Vote.”

Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) is a type of Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV). (The multi-winner form, used to elect legislative bodies, is called Single Transferable Vote.) Other election methods, such as Bucklin, also use a ranked ballot that allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. Ranked ballots ask voters to make a comparative judgment: whom do you like more—Deborah Democrat or Ronald Republican?

Under Instant Runoff Voting, voters rank their candidates in order of preference. Votes are counted in rounds that simulate a series of runoffs: in the first round, everyone’s first-choice vote is counted. If no candidate wins a majority, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and her votes are transferred to her voters’ next-ranked candidate who is still in the race. Candidates with fewer votes continue getting eliminated and their votes transferred until a candidate wins a majority of the remaining active votes. (Sound complicated? It’s not. This one-minute video explains.)

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy.

Supporters say

Single-winner Ranked-Choice Voting, a.k.a. Instant Runoff Voting:

  • has been used in thousands of public elections around the world.
  • eliminates the spoiler effect.
  • allows third-party candidates to run and voters to safely vote for them.
  • elects leaders with majority support.
  • encourages positive, inclusive, campaigns.
  • Psychologists say people are more accurate in making comparative judgments between candidates (“I like Deborah Democrat more than Ronald Republican”) than in making absolute judgments about each candidate individually (“I think Deborah Democrat is an eight, and I think Ronald Republican is a four”).
  • Ranking candidates allows voters to express their opinions about multiple candidates but also puts a low cognitive burden on voters because they don’t have to weigh who is viable and who is not and formulate a voting strategy accordingly; they only have to say whom they like, in order.
Critics say

Single-winner Ranked-Choice Voting, a.k.a. Instant Runoff Voting:

  • does not completely eliminate the spoiler effect.
  • does not guarantee a majority winner.
  • sometimes elects the “wrong” winner. A candidate with broad but weak support—few give him a top ranking but many consider him an acceptable back-up choice—will lose because he will be eliminated for lack of top rankings.
  • does not count all voters’ second and third choices. Voters only get one vote per round, so if their favorite candidate makes it all the way to the final round their second and third rankings will never be counted.
  • sometimes creates counter-intuitive situations where ranking a candidate higher could cause him to lose or ranking him lower could cause him to win.
  • requires votes to be centrally tabulated rather than summed at each precinct, creating added administrative burden. Some voting machines can’t handle a ranked ballot.
  • Because of these faults, it is vulnerable to being repealed.
More information about supporters’ and critics’ claims

Single-winner Ranked-Choice Voting, a.k.a. Instant Runoff Voting, guarantees that:

  • If a majority of voters choose a candidate as their favorite, she will win.
  • If there is a group of candidates that every voter prefers to every candidate outside that group, then one of the candidates in that group will win.
  • If a candidate would lose to the other top candidates in a head-to-head contest, he cannot win.
  • The winner received a majority of the active ballots.
  • Every voter who expresses a preference between the candidates in any round of runoffs gets one vote in that round (if a voter’s preferred candidate is not eliminated in one round, his vote will count for that candidate again in the next runoff round).

Single-winner Ranked-Choice Voting, a.k.a. Instant Runoff Voting, does not guarantee that:

  • If a candidate would beat the other top candidates in a head-to-head contest, she will win. (A compromise candidate without enough top ranks to make it to the runoff will be eliminated, even if she could have won in the runoff).
  • The winning candidate received votes from a majority of all voters. (The winning candidate must receive votes from a majority of all voters who ranked the candidates in the final round, but some voters may not have ranked either of the final candidates.)

Instant Runoff Voting eliminates what most people think of as the “spoiler effect”—where two similar candidates split the majority of votes, allowing a different candidate to win. (For example, in this video, the blueberry and peach are similar candidates splitting the fruit vote, allowing the less popular squash to win.) Usually, this happens when a minor-party candidate (Nader) pulls some votes from a similar major-party candidate (Gore), allowing the less popular, other major-party candidate (Bush) to win. Under Instant Runoff Voting, if a majority of voters prefer Gore or Nader over Bush, Bush cannot win. As a voter, this means you can safely rank a third-party candidate like Nader first and a major-party candidate like Gore second, knowing that once Nader is eliminated your vote will transfer to Gore, helping him win. If you rank Gore first and Nader second, your vote will count for Gore in the first round and again in the second round after Nader is eliminated.

However, Instant Runoff Voting does not eliminate a situation some call the “center squeeze.” When three candidates sit along an ideological spectrum and most voters prefer one of the candidates on the ends, the middle candidate who is everyone’s second choice will get squeezed out. For example, imagine a left-leaning city with three candidates for Mayor: Ronald Republican on the right, Deborah Democrat in the middle, and Priya Progressive on the left. In a spoiler situation, the majority of voters would split their votes between Deborah Democrat and Priya Progressive, allowing Ronald Republican to win. That can’t happen with IRV. In a “middle squeeze” situation, if most left-leaning voters prefer Priya Progressive, Priya would win, even though Deborah was more acceptable to the Republican voters.  

This “center squeeze” situation happened in an IRV election in Burlington, Vermont, in 2009: the Republican and the Progressive each got a little more than one-third of the votes and the Democrat got about one-quarter and was eliminated. Most Democratic voters ranked the Progressive second, so the Progressive beat the Republican in the final runoff. Critics of IRV say the Republican “spoiled” the election for the Democrat. But if a spoiler is a similar candidate who splits the votes of a majority of like-minded voters allowing a different candidate to win, the Republican was not a spoiler for the Democrat. Democratic and Progressive voters in Burlington were like-minded, giving most of their back-up votes to the other, but Republican and Democratic voters were less similar; less than half of Republican voters chose the Democrat as a back-up and just 19 percent of Democrats chose the Republican as a back-up.

This video from a group that promotes Approval Voting illustrates a similar so-called “spoiler” effect in IRV from the point of view of a voter in the minority. In the video, imagine your “Ideal” candidate is the Republican, you think the Democrat is “Good” and you oppose the Progressive (“Bad” in the video). You and other voters in the conservative minority in this progressive town are upset that your least favorite candidate won. In Burlington, 17 percent of voters preferred the Republican first and the Democrat second, and were upset that their least favorite candidate, the Progressive, won. But from the perspective of the electorate as a whole, the result makes sense. Few voters felt strongly about the “center” Democrat, while a majority ranked the Progressive first or second.

Put another way, IRV narrows the field to the two candidates with the strongest support (the most high rankings) and then selects the most popular of those two. In a three-way race, a candidate who would lose in a head-to-head against both other contenders (the Condorcet Loser) can’t win, because he has to go head-to-head in the runoff). But a candidate who would win a head-to-head against both other contenders (the Condorcet Winner) won’t necessarily win, because he has to get enough high rankings to make it to the runoff. If the 17 percent of Burlington voters who preferred the Republican first and the Democrat second could have known that the Republican would be the Condorcet Loser and the Democrat would be the Condorcet Winner, they could have been wary of advancing their favorite to the runoff and instead tried to get their second-favorite to the runoff. 

In IRV, votes have to be tabulated centrally, although this is not a problem for local elections in Oregon and Washington, where all vote-by-mail ballots are already sent to one county location for counting. For statewide elections, all counties would transmit their ballot data to the secretary of state. Counties could transmit the entire ballot information, or they could transmit their first-round totals, and then the state could add them and tell all counties which candidates to eliminate. The counties could then transfer the eliminated candidates’ votes and transmit second-round totals and so on.

Experience says

The following places currently use Instant Runoff Voting:

In 2017, 18 states introduced ranked-choice voting bills—11 states have Republican co-sponsors, and 13 states have Democratic co-sponsors.

Instant Runoff Voting has been shown to reduce negative campaigning and produce more civil, less negative campaigns because candidates have an incentive to broaden their appeal and seek out second- and third-ranked votes.

In US cities that have used Instant Runoff Voting in the past decade, voters in IRV systems have elected more women and people of color.

In ten recent public IRV elections in US cities, between 54 percent and 85 percent of voters ranked two or more candidates, indicating most voters understand the ranked ballot and make use of it by expressing support for more than one candidate.

Out of 142 Instant Runoff Voting elections in the United States that released full data, including 86 with three or more candidates, all but one has elected the Condorcet Winner. In the 2009 election for Mayor of Burlington, Vermont, described above, the “center squeeze” eliminated the Condorcet winner before the final runoff. If the 17 percent of voters had known to strategically “betray” their favorite, the Republican, they could have at least helped their second-favorite, the Democrat, win and kept their least-favorite, the Progressive, out of office. But they could not have known the weak (third place in the polls) Democrat was a better bet than the strong (first place in the polls) Republican candidate. What if they misjudged and prevented their favorite from winning? Under Instant Runoff Voting, voters’ safest strategy is always honest rankings.

Nonetheless, candidates or parties may spread misinformation about Instant Runoff Voting. For example, in those parts of Australia where the Green Party regularly wins seats in the senate (elected with proportional voting) and sometimes in the lower house (elected with IRV), the Labor Party sometimes warns Green voters not to vote for their favorite Green Party candidate in Instant Runoff Voting elections for the lower house because they could “spoil” the election for the Labor candidate. So far as I can tell, this has never actually happened, and it has not discouraged third-party candidates from running nor voters from voting for them. Australia routinely has 5 or more candidates run for lower house seats, and minor-party candidates receive between 15 and 23 percent of first-ranked votes. But facts don’t stop major parties and critics from fearmongering.

Another example: some producers spread misinformation around the Academy Awards, erroneously telling people that Instant Runoff uses a “weighted” ballot. (They are basically describing another voting system called Borda Count, which translates ranks to scores and therefore fails the Later-No-Harm criterion.) This is not true; Instant Runoff Voting doesn’t use scores, but instead transfers your vote to your next-ranked candidate if your first-choice is eliminated, so it is always safe to rank more candidates. But this experience indicates the need for voter education.

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy.

Under Approval Voting, voters can vote for as many candidates as they find acceptable. Voters are implicitly assigning each candidate a score: either a 1 or a 0. All votes are added up and the candidate with the most total votes wins.

Supporters say
Critics say
  • In practice, in high-stakes elections using Approval Voting, voters will only vote for their favorite candidate because a vote for a less-preferred candidate could cause your favorite to lose. In other words, Approval Voting fails the Later-No-Harm criterion, meaning that voters cannot honestly vote for a less-preferred candidate without risking causing their more preferred candidate to lose. When voters realize this, they often bullet vote (vote only for their favorite).
  • If enough voters bullet vote, Approval Voting is no better than Plurality Voting: third parties get few votes, and similar candidates can split the majority of votes, electing a candidate whom a majority of voters did not want.
  • To know whether it is safe to vote for more than one candidate, voters must figure out which candidates are viable and which are not. Making these calculations imposes a cognitive burden on voters.
More information about supporters’ and critics’ claims

When there are only two viable candidates, likely two major-party candidates, voters can safely vote for their preferred major-party candidate and also any weaker or third-party candidates they like but know can’t win (it is safe to approve both Nader and Gore, since Nader can’t win). But when there are three strong candidates, or if the voter isn’t sure who is viable and who is not, or if the voter honestly approves of both major-party candidates, he can only safely vote for his favorite. (In the Burlington example above, voters would most likely approve just one of the three strong candidates, and the Republican would have won with mere plurality support, even though, had voters who mildly approved of the Democrat voted for him in addition to their favorite, he would have won.)

Alternatively, if a voter does not care who wins, but only wants a particular candidate to lose, (for example, in this video, if a voter didn’t care whether peach or blueberry won, he only wanted squash to lose), he could vote for everyone other than the candidate he wants to lose.

To make the most of their Approval ballot, voters must know which candidates are viable and only vote for one of those. If they know which candidates can’t win, they can safely vote for any and all of those. Without this knowledge, voters’ safest strategy—the one that gives their favorite candidate the best chance to win—is to treat the Approval ballot like a Plurality ballot and only vote for one.

Experience says

Approval voting is not used in any governmental election. Although the Center for Election Science and Warren Smith say that the United Nations “uses Approval Voting to elect its Secretary General,” they don’t actually use an Approval Voting election. Rather, the UN Security Council discusses candidates over the course of many months, periodically using non-binding Approval Voting-style straw polls to help them converge on a candidate no one will veto. They unanimously recommend that candidate to the larger body to be appointed as the Secretary General.

Colorado Democrats introduced an Approval Voting bill in the 2017 session.

Several minor political parties, professional organizations, Dartmouth College, and San Francisco State University use Approval Voting.

Experience indicates that many voters “bullet vote”—vote for only one candidate—in Approval Voting elections. For example:

  • The Institute of Electrical Engineers stopped using approval voting in 2002 because 80 percent of members were bullet voting.
  • In a Mathematical Association of American election, 79 percent of voters bullet voted.
  • The Independent Party of Oregon recently held an Approval Voting presidential primary, and more than 70 percent of voters bullet voted.
  • Dartmouth College’s student body has used approval voting since 2011, and most voters for student body president bullet vote. In 2015 and 2017, likely everyone bullet voted (there were fewer votes than ballots cast), in 2016 more than 92 percent bullet voted, and in 2014 at least 82 pecent bullet voted.
  • In a 2009 Dartmouth Alumni Association election that did not release full data, between 19 and 60 percent of voters bullet voted. However, a faction of Dartmouth alumni with extreme views apparently succeeded in electing several candidates to the Board of Trustees by getting their supporters to bullet vote while others naively approved more candidates. After several of these surprising wins, the association put a referendum on the alumni ballot in 2010, and alumni voted 81 percent to 19 percent to eliminate approval voting. In the 2010 plurality election, the extreme candidate lost by 70 percent to 30 percent, suggesting that strategic approval voting had elected unrepresentative candidates.

Approval Voting works well in many non-election scenarios, such as polls or ratings where people are expressing an opinion or narrowing in on satisfactory options (as in the UN Security Council process) but not electing a single winner. For example, in its online election, the Independent Party of Oregon also asked voters to use Approval Voting to identify multiple policy priorities, and voters averaged nearly four votes each. YouTube, and now Netflix use thumbs up or thumbs down rating systems where viewers can express approval or disapproval of multiple people, videos, or shows. Approval Voting can also be an easy and fair way to make decisions in lower-stakes group situations—everyone raises a hand for every option they find acceptable, and no compicated tallying is needed.

Also called: “Grand Junction Voting,” “preferential approval voting.”

Bucklin Voting uses a ranked (preferential) ballot but adds multiple votes together (like Approval Voting does), rather than transferring a single vote as Instant Runoff Voting does. Votes are summed in rounds: in the first round, only first-choice votes are counted. If no candidate wins a majority (at least half) of the votes, then all second-choice votes are added to the first-choice votes, then all third-choice votes are added, and so on until someone wins a majority.

Some versions of Bucklin Voting only allowed voters to rank two candidates.

Supporters say
  • The counting method for Bucklin Voting is fairly easy to explain.
  • Because you know your second-choice vote will only be counted after your first-choice, you are less likely to bullet vote than in pure Approval Voting.
  • Because your votes for multiple candidates can all get counted simultaneously, it is more fair than Instant Runoff Voting, which only counts your second-choice ranking if your first-choice candidate gets eliminated.
Critics say
  • Like Approval Voting, voters are likely to revert to bullet voting when they realize giving a rank to less-preferred candidates can hurt your favorite under Bucklin Voting.
Experience says

For a brief period at the beginning of the 20th century, several American cities, including Portland, Oregon, and Spokane, Washington, used Bucklin Voting. In 1932, Portland voted 81 percent to 19 percent to repeal Bucklin voting. A 1915 analysis of Cleveland, Columbus, Portland, and Spokane showed that between between 27 and 65 percent of voters ranked more than one candidate. However, in 16 Bucklin elections in Alabama, an average of just 13 percent of voters ranked more than one. Overall, more voters seem to rank multiple candidates under Bucklin Voting than under Approval Voting, but still rank fewer candidates than under Instant Runoff Voting.

Also called: “Range voting.”

Score Voting is also called Range Voting because voters can give each candidate a range of scores. Scoring or rating systems ask voters to make an absolute judgement about each candidate and give each an independent rating or grade: do you think Deborah Democrat is a 0, a 9, or some number in between? Same for every other candidate. Scores could range from 1 to 5 as on Yelp, or from 0 to 9, or some other range. The scores are added up or averaged, and the candidate with the highest total or average score wins.

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy.

Supporters say

The Center for Range Voting makes stronger claims about Score Voting’s benefits than does the Center for Election Science; following is a mix of claims from these two organizations.

  • Score Voting, especially with a large range of numbers, allows voters maximal nuanced expression.
  • Voters can always express themselves honestly, including always giving a top score to their favorite.
  • The “human impulse for honesty” will ensure many voters will vote honestly, even when it is not in their interest to do so.
  • Voters will give high scores to weak or “infant” third-parties because they know, if that candidate has no chance to win, it is safe to give them a high score.
  • There are no “spoilers.”
  • It will elect the most “utilitarian” candidate—the one whose win will inspire the highest average intensity of happiness among voters.
  • It is the best voting system according to “Bayesian regret”—a model that proponents consider the “gold standard for comparing single-winner” methods—and its inverse “Voter Satisfaction Efficiency.”
  • “Modern election machines” can count a scored ballot.
Critics say
  • In Score Voting, it’s irrational to vote honestly. One strategy, as in Approval Voting, is to give a maximum score to your favorite and minimum to everyone else. Voters who don’t follow the strategy and instead give honest scores to all candidates will be at a disadvantage. Some voters will max out for their favorite viable candidate and be done. Voters who don’t care which of their preferred candidates win, or who just want to see a particular candidate lose, may give a max score to all candidates they approve of, or to all candidates other than their least favorite. Informed voters will give a max score to any weak third-party candidates, confident that doing so won’t sink their preferred viable candidate. What voters won’t do is honestly score all the candidates, because voting that way minimizes their influence over the outcome.
  • Score Voting could elect extreme candidates opposed by the majority of voters. Because total intensity of voters’ support is more important than total numbers of voters who support a candidate, a minority that feels strongly can beat a majority that feels less strongly, an outcome that goes against most notions of democracy. For example, if 45 percent of voters gave the Republican a 9 and the Democrat a 0, and 55 percent of voters give the Democrat an 8 and the Republican a 1, the Republican would win, even though a majority of voters preferred the Democrat. (Note that, in the multi-winner form of Range Voting that could be used to elect legislatures, this is not a flaw because a group in the racial, political, or social minority should be able to have a voice in the legislature.)
  • The way that Score Voting works, and the mathematical models used to prove it is the best voting system (Bayesian Regret and Voter Satisfaction Efficiency) are based on assumptions about voters that don’t apply to real people in the real world.
    • If I don’t love her, but she’s okay, should I give her a four or a six? Does a one mean “I weakly support” or “I strongly oppose”? Because different voters will interpret the numbers differently, researchers who study measurement generally agree that raw scores cannot be added and compared across voters in the way Score Voting boosters’ models do.
    • In the last election you voted in, for how many candidates did you know whether they were a 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9? Most voters know whom they like and whom they oppose—“I like Republicans” or “I don’t like Libertarians”—or whom they like most and whom they like second-most. Asking voters to give each candidate a precise score may be overwhelming.
    • When you look at election results, is your happiness about who won based on their mathematical distance from you on an array of policy issues? Can you even name five policy positions held by your mayor, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, etc.? In reality, many voters’ perception of election results is shaped more by group identity—whether political, racial, religious, or geographic—than by personal views on multiple policy positions. Indeed, voters often shape their policy views based on their party, rather than picking their party or candidates based on unchanging personal policy positions, as evidenced by Republican’s dramatically changed views on Russia and Democrat’s flip-flop on state’s rights.
  • Trying to calculate your honest scores for each candidate, and then also understand the best strategy under Score Voting, would put an even higher cognitive burden on voters than Approval Voting.
  • No voting machines are yet able or certified to count score ballots.
More information about supporters’ and critics’ claims

Voters can always safely give their favorite a top score because Score Voting passes the “Favorite Betrayal” criterion. As with Approval Voting, if a voter knows which candidates are not viable (cannot win), he can safely give scores to those candidates, too. However, voters cannot safely give scores to viable candidates other than their favorite because Score Voting fails the Later-No-Harm criterion. Score Voting also fails the Majority, Mutual Majority, Condorcet Winner, and Condorcet Loser criteria, so it does not tend towards the candidate with majority support. Another drawback is that not all vote-counting machines can handle a score ballot.

Another drawback is that no vote-counting machines are certifed to count a score ballot.

Experience says

No governmental elections have ever used Score Voting. Amazon, Yelp, and other online platforms use a 5-star Score Voting system. YouTube and Netflix previously used a 5-star Score voting system, but both eventually switched to a simplified thumbs-up/thumbs-down Approval Voting system. In 2009, YouTube realized that most users of its 5-star Score Voting system were giving either 1 star or 5 stars. This year, Netflix also switched from Score to Approval Voting, perhaps in part because the company realized that a mobilized block of users who intensely disliked a particular show were able to damage its average rating. For example: far-right activists all gave Amy Schumer’s show 1 star, overwhelming her other positive ratings.

Even in a low-stakes situation like rating a TV show, users polarized around the highest and lowest scores. In a high-stakes election, the pressure to strategically vote is strong because giving a middling score to a candidate you moderately support could cause your favorite to lose. Voters in an election would likely give their favorite candidate the highest score and all other candidates the lowest.

Score Runoff Voting (SRV) is a new hybrid form of voting invented in Oregon. The ballot looks like a Score Voting ballot, where voters can give each candidate a score from, say, 0 to 5. The scores are added up, and the two candidates with the highest total scores advance to an automatic runoff. In the runoff, each voter’s vote counts for the candidate he or she rated higher. The candidate with the most votes in the runoff wins.

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy.

Supporters say
  • Score Runoff Voting aka Star Voting is the best of both worlds: it lets voters express nuanced opinions about each candidate as in Score Voting, but it improves on Score Voting by ensuring, as does Instant Runoff Voting, that a candidate whom a majority of voters oppose can’t win. It improves on Instant Runoff Voting by counting, as Score and Approval do, each voter’s opinion of each candidate all at once (instead of just counting one vote for one candidate in each round, as in Instant Runoff).
  • It allows voters to always vote honestly without fear of spoilers.
  • It ensures that a candidate in the middle—one who is the second choice of most voters on both sides—will win if supporters give him good scores. Or, if supporters give him low scores and he loses, it will be clear that he was only a reluctant backup choice for most voters.
  • The runoff incentivizes voters to give a non-zero score to more than one candidate, to ensure they get a vote in the runoff.  
    Critics say
  • Under Score Runoff Voting, voters would likely not fill out their whole ballot with honest, nuanced scores for each candidate. Rather, voters would likely give a maximum score to their favorite and a minimum to their second-favorite, to get a vote in the runoff in case their favorite is eliminated, but still minimize the chance of helping their second-favorite make it to the runoff instead of their favorite. Savvy voters might also give a maximum score to a third-party candidate if they are sure that candidate can’t beat their favorite.
  • This could lead to the “center squeeze” situation described under Instant Runoff Voting above: if you live in a right-leaning district where Ronald Republican sits in the ideological “center” between Terry Tea Party and Deborah Democrat, but voters give their respective favorites (Terry and Deborah) high scores and give Ronald low scores, then he could get squeezed out of the runoff, allowing Terry to win, even though left-leaning voters would have preferred the Republican to the Tea Party candidate. If voters figure this out, Tea Party voters will give Ronald minimal scores, to ensure he doesn’t beat out their favorite. Democratic voters might give Ronald higher scores, to try to keep the Tea Party out of office, but only if they are confident that their second-favorite, Ronald, can’t beat their favorite, Deborah Democrat, in the runoff.
  • The calculations above put a large cognitive burden on voters.
  • Like IRV, SRV does not guarantee that all voters have a say in the runoff or that the winner has majority support; any ballot without a score for either of the final two candidates will not count in the runoff.
  • If a voter gives the same score to two candidates, his vote may not count in the runoff.
  • No voting machines are yet able or certified to count SRV ballots.
More information about supporters’ and critics’ claims

Like IRV, SRV narrows the field to the two candidates with the strongest support (the most high scores) and then selects the most popular of those two. This ensures that, in a race with three strong candidates, one who would lose in a head-to-head against both other contenders can’t win (because he has to go head-to-head in the runoff). But it doesn’t guarantee that a candidate who would win a head-to-head against both contenders wins, because a candidate who doesn’t earn enough high scores to make it to the runoff can’t win. For those who are scrutinizing the election results, SRV has the advantage of showing that the head-to-head winner received low scores, making it seem more appropriate that he lost, whereas IRV only tells analysts that voters ranked him second, leaving ambiguity about whether he was a close second or a distant second.

No voting machines are yet able or certified to count SRV ballots.

Experience says

Score Runoff Voting has so far been used in a poll in a group meeting in Portland. It should be put to use in an election to see how real voters respond.

Note:

Anyone who wades into voting systems in the United States and Canada will soon discover strong divisions amongst voting advocates.

On one side is FairVote, a national advocacy group pushing for ranked-choice voting, in both its single-winner form (Instant Runoff Voting or IRV) and its multi-winner form (Single Transferable Vote or STV). FairVote also advocates for the National Popular Vote for US president, modernizing voter registration to ensure all American citizens are able to vote, and improving primaries.

On the other side, the Center for Election Science champions Approval Voting and Score Voting, and mathematician Warren Smith and his Center for Range Voting advocate for Score Voting (a.k.a. “Range Voting”).

A new player in the game, Oregon-based EqualVote Coalition, is pushing for Score Runoff Voting (SRV) in Oregon.

Download a printable version of this glossary

EPA Refuses to Ban Pesticide that Causes Brain Damage in Children

In our last article on Chlorpyrifos, we asked, “Will the Trump Administration Cancel An Old, Dangerous Pesticide?” Well, it did not.

It’s only the latest sad turn of events in the history of Chlorpyrifos. It is no violation of Godwin’s law to note that the Nazis first developed organophosphate chemicals as nerve gas agents during World War II. After the war, chemical companies transitioned to using organophosphates as pesticides against insects and other target organisms, such as fungi. In 1965, Chlorpyrifos, a member of the organophosphate chemical class, was first registered in the US for uses in agriculture and in residences.

Chlorpyrifos by National Pesticide Information Center, Oregon State University (Used under public domain.)

Chlorpyrifos-oxon by National Pesticide Information Center, Oregon State University (Used under public domain.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Research since then shows that Chlorpyrifos was probably a terrible idea from the get-go. EPA scientists now consider it unacceptable for children or adults to eat Chlorpyrifos-sprayed foods, including Northwest staples such as apples, pears, cherries, other tree fruits, sugar beets, lentils, and wheat. Other scientifically unacceptable exposures include those to farmworker families and their neighbors from pesticide spray drift; to workers performing agricultural tasks; and to adults and children, on or off farms, from their drinking water. Alarmingly, EPA has found that treating water for drinking via chlorination can actually convert Chlorpyrifos into its even more acutely toxic form, the oxon metabolite.

More than two decades after it was first registered, Congress amended federal pesticide laws to tighten regulatory protections, requiring EPA to “Reregister” all older pesticides first used in the US before November 1984, to bring those chemicals to current scientific and regulatory standards. This process covered over 600 chemical “cases,” individual pesticides, or groups of related chemicals. The amendments also set fees from those companies seeking reregistration to provide dedicated funds for EPA staff to review the required data. Over a third of the old pesticides were canceled, either because the data provided were insufficient or because the manufacturers made an economic decision that future sales were not likely to justify the costs of reregistration.

As scientific understanding developed, so did regulatory restrictions. Congressional amendments in 1996 required reevaluating all pesticide uses on food; established new, stricter safety standards, with special protections for children; and directed EPA to reevaluate the pesticides posing the greatest risks first. The agency was required to consider “aggregate” pesticide exposure to consumers, including from food and drinking water, and “cumulative” risks from groups of pesticides that have a “common mode of toxicity.” This included the organophosphates, of which Chlorpyrifos, still registered, is just one member.

In 2000, EPA negotiated a voluntary agreement with manufacturers to end Chlorpyrifos uses in homes, schools, and day care centers—all locations where children could be exposed. Then in 2007, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and Pesticide Action Network North America (PANNA), frustrated by federal foot-dragging on further protections, petitioned EPA to cancel all uses of Chlorpyrifos. The groups claimed that EPA failed to consider some pathways of pesticide exposure, such as “spray drift,” from fields to farm families and their neighbors.

In 2014, EPA published a revised human health risk assessment. In it, the agency acknowledged an extensive body of science finding correlations between Chlorpyrifos exposure and brain damage to children. Further, that brain damage occurs at exposures far lower than EPA’s regulatory target designed to prevent acute pesticide poisoning.

Eventually the courts stepped in. In August 2015, declaring it “necessary to end the EPA’s cycle of incomplete responses, missed deadlines, and unreasonable delay,” the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ordered EPA to act on the 2007 NRDC/PANNA petition to ban Chlorpyrifos, with an October deadline. When the agency met the court’s deadline it proposed to revoke all uses on food, based on known human exposures to Chlorpyrifos from food applications and in drinking water.

The proposal might have set an extraordinary precedent. EPA advised that “the agency is unable to conclude that the risk from aggregate exposure from the use of Chlorpyrifos meets the safety standard” required by federal pesticide laws. The implication: if the Agency cannot make a formal safety finding for a particular pesticide after so many years of evaluation, then it would be obligated to cancel at least enough uses to bring the risks down to acceptable levels. Moreover, if EPA were to apply the same approach it used for Chlorpyrifos to chemical cousins that demonstrate similar effects on neurological development, then the cumulative risk assessment for other organophosphates would have to be updated accordingly. In the process, additional restrictions likely would be necessary to protect children and adults for the whole batch of neuro-damaging organophosphates.

But events took the final decision away from the Obama administration. In November 2016, after the US Presidential election put Trump in the White House, EPA released a revised human health risk assessment for Chlorpyrifos that accounted for neurodevelopmental impacts. Among other conclusions, the new risk assessment found unacceptable levels of risk for children and adults; specifically, that food exposures to all age groups exceeded safe levels, and the most sensitive group, children 1 to 2 years old, are exposed to 140 times the “safe” levels. It was a shocking finding that should have led to a complete ban of the use of Chlorpyrifos on food crops.

But the Trump administration was unmoved. On March 29, 2017, just two days before a court-ordered deadline for a decision, Scott Pruitt refused to ban Chlorpyrifos. In doing so, he limited his actions to complying with the letter of the court order, which was to make a final decision on the NRDC/PANNA petition, and denied the ban request.

Pruitt knew what he was doing. By limiting his decision to a Yes/No on the petition, he avoided setting precedents that might be applied to other pesticides. He also ignored EPA’s statutory duties to protect the environment and human health, including those most at risk—children in farmworker communities, many of whom are Latino.

So, what happens next? On behalf of NRDC and PANNA, Earthjustice promptly filed a new appeal directly to the same federal court that earlier ordered EPA to make a decision. Readers can support their action—and a ban on Chlorpyrifos—on Earthjustice’s website.

 

John Abbotts is a former Sightline research consultant who occasionally submits material that Sightline staff members turn into articles.

Weekend Reading 5/5/17

Alan

This Atlantic piece on the transformation of retailing is intriguing, because among other things, it presents evidence that young people are choosing experiences over things:

There is no question that the most significant trend affecting brick-and-mortar stores is the relentless march of Amazon and other online retail companies. But the recent meltdown for retail brands is equally about the legacy of the Great Recession, which punished logo-driven brands, put a premium on experiences (particularly those that translate into social media moments), and unleashed a surprising golden age for restaurants.

Eric

Michael Riordan goes behind the veil at the EPA beachhead under the Trump Administration, detailing the travails of Washington state senator (and clean energy bête noire) Doug Ericksen.

As the entire Internet went ballistic over Bret StephensNew York Times column on climate science uncertainty, I spent some time with a piece he linked to: Andy Revkin’s biographical account of his journey into environmental reporting. Revkin has come in for a lot of abuse from some quarters—unjustly in my opinion—and it is illuminating to read his own portrayal of developing a passion for both environmental protection and honorable journalism.

At Seattle Weekly, Marxist and first generation Pakistani-American Asad Haider takes aim at identity politics, explaining why he believes it is fracturing the left.

I recently finished two books that were both flawed and, by turns, extraordinary.

Heart of the Monster reads like a duet by two great tenors of environmental writing, David James Duncan and Rick Bass. They make a specific argument about the imperative of their communities to resist fossil fuels and the delivery of mining equipment through the northern Rockies to the tar sands. It is also something of a cri de coeur for the sacredness of the Clearwater River, Lolo Pass, and the great Nez Perce heartland of Cascadia.

The Argonauts by Maggie Nelson brought me back to my graduate philosophy program, and to the room where I assisted in the birth of my child, and to places I don’t pretend to understand. I’m a cis-gendered straight white guy and I think I underlined about a quarter of the book. I can’t imagine how it might land for others.

Anna

The Oatmeal does it again with a comic explainer of the backfire effect. We are biologically wired to reject information that threatens our core beliefs. When new information threatens to dismantle our worldview, we go into battle mode and build up extra defenses to keep the worldview—our very identities—intact. Yep. If you have a brain, it happens to you, it happens to me, not just to people we don’t agree with.

And for the more science-y version of the same basic concept, here’s Slate on why explaining science won’t fix information illiteracy:

The takeaway is clear: Increasing science literacy alone won’t change minds. In fact, well-meaning attempts by scientists to inform the public might even backfire. Presenting facts that conflict with an individual’s worldview, it turns out, can cause people to dig in further. (H/T KE)

Aven

Two new additions to the silver linings category:

First, a growing number of small business owners and entrepreneurs are capitalizing on the #ResistanceEconomy, using progressive messages and political anger as fuel for their creative endeavors. The merchandise includes everything from baby onesies to a scented candle that smells of meat and suntan lotion and comes with an orange wig-lid, and many proceeds go to support nonprofits like Planned Parenthood and the ACLU.

And cannabis activists in California have an ambitious plan to launch a new public bank—one that can serve the billion dollar industry while also enabling communities to get out from under Wall Street’s thumb. Sounds like a win-win.

John

The Olympian ran an article from a wire service addressing the question: are pesticides safe to use on fruit and vegetables? The author leaves it to readers to make their own decisions. But in my opinion, he provides a balanced account of the controversy around Chlorpyrifos. I also am old enough to remember his other story, about Alar (chemical name Daminozide) in 1989. The author describes how consumers “voted with their forks,” to protect themselves and their children from apples, apple juice, and other products treated with Alar. Major grocery stores responded by demanding Alar-free apples and apple products from their suppliers. By the time EPA was ready to cancel the chemical, Uniroyal, the sole Alar manufacturer, voluntarily halted all sales of the chemical for use in the United States.

In “Pesticide maker tries to kill risk study,” an Associated Press exclusive, the news agency released letters that lawyers for three pesticide companies submitted to two Cabinet departments and the EPA, asking the Trump administration to disregard the findings of federal agency scientists that organophosphate pesticides are harmful to about 1,800 threatened or endangered species. Those companies include Dow Chemical, which got the headline because it manufactures Chlorpyrifos. The other two companies respectively sell Malathion and Diazinon.

The Northwest Center for Alternatives to Pesticides (NCAP) is fighting back by asking citizens to sign a petition telling EPA to Protect People & Endangered Species [including salmon] from Pesticides. NCAP is collecting signatures until May 15, and those interested can get details and add their signatures at this embedded link to the petition.

 

John Abbotts is a former Sightline research consultant who occasionally submits material for Weekend Reading and other posts.

Some Neighborhoods Losing Population, Despite the Boom

Denny-Blaine, Madrona, and Leschi are among Seattle’s most coveted neighborhoods. Laced with lush parks and beautiful houses commanding magnificent views of Lake Washington and the Cascades, they are closer to downtown than any other lakefront neighborhoods. Yet for all their desirability, in the more than four decades since 1970—as Seattle’s  population has increased by more than 130,000—the total population of these neighborhoods has decreased by more than 800 people, or 13 percent.

Approximately one-third of Seattle’s land area lost population since 1970.
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Like other large swaths of Seattle where community rules—namely zoning—only allow detached, single-family houses, they have fewer inhabitants now than they had a generation ago. Approximately one-third of Seattle’s land area lost population since 1970, because it is zoned for single-family houses but families have been shrinking. Since 1970, the average number of people living in each Seattle home in the city declined from 2.5 to 2.1. At the same time, Seattle’s single-family zoning (which covers over half of the city’s land) tightly restricts the number of dwellings, preventing most homeowners from making full use of their homes even as households grow smaller. Throughout Cascadia and North America, a similar trend is likely in any large city that sets aside a lot of land for single-family houses.

In booming cities such as Seattle, diminishing population in any neighborhood is a lost opportunity for equity and sustainability. It’s a sign that inflexible rules are exacerbating the housing shortage, driving up prices and displacement. By stifling gentle increases in the number of households that share each lot, these community zoning decisions create exclusive neighborhoods where lower-income people cannot find affordable options—indeed, where more affordable options are downright illegal! They also degrade walkability and transit, and push homebuilding into sprawling, car-dependent suburbs.

The good news is that Seattle leaders who care about affordability and equitable access to the promise and opportunity of all the city’s neighborhoods can turn this around: with small adjustments in rules, single-family neighborhoods can refill to their 1970 populations and more. These places in the city that are close to jobs, transit, parks, recreation, and excellent schools have room to comfortably accommodate more people.

Where population growth is running in reverse

Seattle’s population grew from 530,831 in 1970 to an estimated 662,400 in 2015, an increase of 25 percent. The map below illustrates how Seattle’s population changed by census tract using the most current available data, the American Community Survey 5-year average from 2011 to 2015. The 1970 data are from Brown University’s Longitudinal Tract Data Base that adjusts historic census data to the 2010 census tract boundaries.

Each polygon in the map is one of Seattle’s 134 census tracts, and the number on each tract indicates the population difference between 1970 and 2015. Negative numbers indicate a loss of population. Each tract is a shade of gray that fades between white, where the most population was lost, to black, where the most population was gained. Thirty-four tracts declined in population by a total of 17,136 people, and 100 tracts increased in population by a total of 140,972 people. The census tract that overlaps Denny-Blaine, Madrona, and Leschi is the white one marked “-814” that is due east of downtown on Lake Washington.

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy. Click on map to enlarge.

The second map reveals the relationship between population change and zoning. The areas shaded red delineate where Seattle’s zoning allows multi-family housing. The pale yellow areas identify industrial and institutional areas where private housing is typically not allowed at all. In general, the areas with the most population gain (darkest) have more multi-family zoning in their vicinity. Conversely, the areas that lost the most population (lightest) tend to be isolated from multi-family zoning, in many cases located in expensive neighborhoods near the water, such as Laurelhurst, Broadview, Magnolia, Fauntleroy, and Seward Park.

Original Sightline Institute graphic, available under our free use policy. Click on map to enlarge.

Seattle’s zoning varies at a much finer spatial scale than do the census tracts, so quantitative analysis of the relationship between zoning and population change is impossible at the tract level. Finer-grained population data are available by census block. Typically, census blocks are each one city block, and a typical tract is divided into 50 or 60 blocks. Unfortunately, analysis at the block level is complicated by changes in their boundaries over time. Also, block data are only available from the decennial census, and not from the annual American Community Survey. Sightline identified 7,502 Seattle census blocks that match between 1970 and 2010, leaving 1,295 blocks unmatched. This 85 percent match is a sufficient sample to reliably represent citywide trends.

The census blocks are not granular enough to align perfectly with zoning boundaries, so I associated each block with a zone based on the block’s centroid (the central point of the block polygon). Sixty-five percent of the matched blocks lie in areas currently zoned single-family. Of these, 63 percent lost population between 1970 and 2010. Total population in the single-family blocks dropped by 15,809 people, or about 5 percent. Looked at another way, 80 percent of the blocks that lost population are located in single-family zones. The net loss of population in single-family zones was more than offset by a net population gain of 61,892 people in blocks not located in single-family zones, an increase of 42 percent.

Where did all the people go?

Excluding public parks and rights-of-way, 54 percent of Seattle’s land is reserved for single-family houses, while multi-family homes are only allowed on 18 percent. Over the past few decades virtually all of Seattle’s population growth has been confined to that 18 percent of the city’s land—the areas shaded red in the second map above.

Single-family zoning limits population density because it means the number of homes can never increase by much. Over the past several decades single-family zones saw a trickle of houses built on vacant or subdivided lots. In more recent years, single-family homeowners constructed about 1,500 granny flats—or accessory dwelling units (ADUs). But both of these additions are small relative the total 134,000 single-family houses in the city. Indeed, as the analysis above shows, not only did population not rise in many single-family areas of the city, it actually declined.

This decline likely flowed from Seattle’s shrinking average household size, which fell from 2.5 to 2.1 over the four decades from 1970 to 2010. All else being equal, that drop would reduce population density by 16 percent, which is three times the 5 percent loss estimated for the census blocks in single-family zones. The difference may be explained by larger households seeking detached houses, which have more bedrooms, rather than apartments. Consequently, household size in single-family homes may have declined less than in multi-family dwellings.

Two other possible minor sources of population loss in single-family zones are the replacement of worn-out, grandfathered, small-scale multi-family buildings with new single-family houses, and the conversion of houses with multiple units into standard single-unit houses (many of Seattle’s older duplexes and triplexes were single-family homes to begin with). Under current city rules, Seattle’s grandfathered multi-family buildings in single-family zones, currently about 10,200 homes, can only legally be replaced by single-family houses.

What’s sacrificed when single-family neighborhoods are unable to adapt to changing household size?

Based on the census block analysis above, roughly a third of the city’s land—much of it in the city’s choicest neighborhoods—is now supporting fewer people than it was 40 years ago. That’s the 63 percent of single-family census blocks that lost population multiplied by the 54 percent of city land (not counting parks and rights-of-way) that is zoned exclusively for single-family homes.

Meanwhile, on just 18 percent of Seattle’s land—the land where the city has deemed multi-family housing legal—population grew by a net 42 percent. In other words, Seattle’s zoning leads to shrinking population over large portions of the city while it forces all the growth, whether newcomers or long-time residents who cannot afford to buy detached houses, into higher-density housing in the space that’s left. That’s a problem—for several reasons.

When there’s not enough to go around, people compete for what is available, prices go up and those at the lower end of the economic ladder lose out.
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First, to tame housing prices, Seattle needs to make a lot more room for all the people who want to live in the city. Contrary to myth, Seattle does not have plenty of land zoned for new housing—and spiraling prices are the evidence. When there’s not enough to go around, people compete for what is available, prices go up, and those at the lower end of the economic ladder lose out. Yet Seattle’s single-family zones aren’t even treading water and in fact are making the shortage of capacity worse.

Overall, a neighborhood with fewer people than history has shown it can comfortably hold is a squandered opportunity to create a more equitable and sustainable city. Among the ill effects:

  • Fewer people on the lower side of the income spectrum get to enjoy the benefits of the “high opportunity neighborhoods” located in Seattle’s family-friendly single-family zones—places that often have the best public schools and parks along with good access to transit and jobs.
  • Public investments go underutilized, including utilities, parks, and neighborhood assets like community centers and libraries.
  • Private urban spaces, from bedrooms to yards, also go underutilized, sitting empty, often heated or maintained regardless. (Sightline estimated in 2012 that 27 percent of the city’s bedrooms are empty on a typical night, and last year the Seattle Times estimated that King County has nearly 200,000 empty bedrooms.)
  • Land where it’s legal to build modestly sized “missing middle” homes such as townhouses remains scarce, limiting the supply of lower-priced options for first-time buyers, families with children, and downsizing baby boomers.
  • New housing is relegated to larger buildings located in more intensely developed neighborhoods near commercial areas and high-traffic roadways that expose residents to more noise, air pollution, and risk of injury from motor vehicles.
  • Serving the city with transit—which operates more efficiently as population density increases—remains more costly.
  • Walkability suffers because fewer parts of the city have enough people to support neighborhood businesses.

Gentle density and single-family neighborhoods

Seattle’s rigid form of single-family zoning enforces an imbalance in where the city can grow—an imbalance amplified by the demographic shift toward smaller household sizes. It’s a policy choice that makes neighborhoods more and more exclusive, elite, and even emptier! Seattle policymakers can correct that harmful imbalance by adjusting rules to allow homeowners in single-family zones to adapt more flexibly to smaller families: by allowing “gentle density.”

Gentle density means adding more dwellings without making a neighborhood’s buildings grow (or grow much). It means welcoming more families into the existing fabric of neighborhoods. Indeed, such changes are exactly what Seattle’s Housing Affordability and Livability Agenda (HALA) recommends:

The City should allow more variety of housing scaled to fit within traditional single-family areas to increase the economic and demographic diversity of those who are able to live in these family oriented neighborhoods.

Specifically, HALA calls for holding steady the maximum size of buildings in all single-family zones, but allowing these homes to be shared or divided among more families as small duplexes, triplexes, and stacked flats. It also calls for liberalizing ADU regulations so that more homeowners can install modest in-law apartments and backyard cottages in the most expensive and sought-after parts of the city. And it proposes that a small fraction of single-family zones that are a short walk from transit and community services should be rezoned to allow multi-family homes.

Adding just one in-law apartment per census block in Seattle’s single-family zones would yield almost 5,000 additional homes citywide.
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Some opponents of these changes contend that public infrastructure is insufficient to support more housing in single-family zones. But such concerns deflate in light of the evidence that nearly two-thirds of these areas once housed more people than they do today. After all, when more populated in decades past, these neighborhoods were well provided with all the essential services such as schools, parks, and utilities. (Most of the infrastructure grumbles don’t hold up to scrutiny anyway, as this article by University of Washington professor Rick Mohler illustrates.) Seattle’s single-family zones have both the room and the public services to accommodate more residents. The steps proposed by HALA lay out the path for opening the door.

The math of gentle density is impressive. Adding just one in-law apartment per census block (roughly, per city block—not block face, but entire block) in Seattle’s single-family zones would yield almost 5,000 additional homes citywide, which at the city’s average household size would house more than 10,000 people. Doubling that modest pace by adding one in-law apartment and one backyard cottage per block—or converting one big, old house into three stories of flats—would double those numbers and turn a four-decade population decline into a small gain in population. And, of course, in many Seattle neighborhoods, most homeowners on most blocks could easily accommodate—and many already want—either a backyard cottage or an in-law apartment. In Vancouver, BC, one-third of single-family homeowners now have one or the other, and many have both; in Seattle, the comparable figure is one percent.

Denny-Blaine, Madrona, and Leschi are the kinds of neighborhoods many Cascadians dream of living in: livable, beautiful, and convenient. Many of those who already live there, or in Seattle’s other single-family areas, will happily welcome more neighbors to refill their neighborhoods to their prior populations or more, if policymakers will simply legalize the flexibility recommended by HALA.

And the resulting gentle density will be a model for the rest of Cascadia and beyond.

 

Thanks to Glenn Pittenger, whose preliminary analysis of the same question inspired this article and who generously shared his data, and to Matt Stevenson of Core GIS, who handled the gnarly block-level spatial analysis for this article.

NOTES

The census data show a large population drop (-3,395 people) in census tract 53.02 that encompasses the University of Washington campus, and a large gain (+5,607 people) in census tract 53.01 that abuts it to the west. These two extreme changes are an artifact of how the Brown University Longitudinal Tract Data Base split the population in the 1970 tract 53 into tracts 53.01 and 53.02 that were created out of tract 53 for the 2010 census. It’s unclear why the Brown University researchers assumed such a large share of the 1970 population in tract 53 was located in tract 53.02, but the results indicate that the assumption was inaccurate.