As of 2023, nearly 1.6 million people in the Northwest lived in areas facing high wildfire hazard, a figure that climbed eight percent since 2018. In most Northwest states, population is growing fastest in the places most likely to burn.
Yet the cost of continuing to build into fire-prone areas does not stop at the edge of fire country. About 80 percent of northwesterners live outside places subject to high wildfire hazard, but they increasingly subsidize growth into them—via higher taxes to fund escalating fire suppression budgets, steeper utility rates for wildfire mitigation, and rising insurance premiums. And when smoke travels hundreds of miles, everyone pays with their health.
Sightline’s newest report, Fire Hazard: The Mounting Costs of Northwest Sprawl, examines how Northwest policymakers can rein in the escalating costs that fall disproportionately on those who don’t live in fire-prone areas, while protecting low-income families who do and have few other options. It outlines policy tools that can make transformative change long-term: steering new development away from the most dangerous areas, building homes that can withstand fire, and helping communities rebuild in safer locations after disasters.
These are tested policy tools. Northwest states have long relied on land use rules and building standards to safeguard communities from the risk of building in places likely to flood.
For now, though political will for these types of changes is lacking. Oregon, for example, repealed its wildfire hazard map and related building codes after backlash from property owners. And, if California’s experience is any indicator, less than a year after the catastrophic 2025 fires in Los Angeles, city leaders moved quickly to rebuild in areas with very high wildfire risk and continue to push back on statewide defensible space requirements.
If comprehensive reforms remain politically infeasible today, policymakers can still lay the groundwork for them by giving northwesterners access to honest information about the rising risk of fire. This means helping renters and homebuyers know the hazard wildfires could pose to their homes and allowing insurance prices to adjust (both up and down) to reflect actual risk of a property burning down. All the while, legalizing more homes in safer parts of the Northwest can ease some of the pressure pushing people to move into harm’s way.
Wildfires will continue to intensify as summers grow hotter and drier. The Northwest still has time to choose a more fire-resilient path, but that window narrows with each fire season.
Related: The Best Wildfire Solution We’re Not Using | Three ways to curb the sprawl that traps us on a wildfire treadmill.
Related: Uncontainable Wildfires Are Inevitable. Community Destruction Is Not | Five policy shifts could help communities harden their homes against fire danger.
