Takeaways
- In Montana, incumbent politicians can effectively hand-pick their successors if they drop out of a primary last-minute and swap in their preferred replacement.
- The state of Missouri avoids that exact ploy with a simple law that reopens candidate filing if someone withdraws at the eleventh hour.
- In 2027, Montana lawmakers have an opportunity to adopt similar legislation to close the loophole.
It played out like a game of three-card monte, with Montana voters as the mark.
Eight minutes before the June primary filing deadline, Kurt Alme, who until that day was the US Attorney for the District of Montana, put his name in the running for US Senate. Moments later, sitting Senator Steve Daines dropped out and announced his retirement. After that, he and President Trump quickly fired off coordinated endorsements for Alme.
The backroom deal played out like clockwork: neither Democrats nor Republicans had time to field other candidates. Voters still technically have other choices on the ballot besides Kurt Alme, but Daines’ behind-the-scenes maneuver nipped any chance of real competitiveness in the bud.
A member of Congress ensuring the coast is clear for a handpicked successor is never a good look. To put an end to such drop-and-swap ploys, Montana legislators could adopt a simple rule from the state of Missouri, where officials extend the filing window if a candidate drops out just before the buzzer.
A hard deadline lets Montana politicians play tricks on voters
On its face, Montana’s deadline seems fair. From sitting senators to idealistic outsiders, everyone who wants their name on a primary ballot must file by the same time: exactly 5:00 p.m., 90 days before the primary election.
But in practice, the no-exceptions deadline allows popular incumbent politicians to practice sleight of hand. As long as they are in good standing, incumbents know they are unlikely to face a serious challenge for their seat. If they drop out at the last minute, they can tee up whoever they like—a friend, a staffer, or even a family member—to take their place.
Last time Daines ran for reelection, he breezed through the primary with 88 percent of the vote and bowled over then-Governor Steve Bullock by a ten-point margin in the general. With little reason to believe Daines would be any less successful in 2026, only two candidates mounted the longest of long-shot primary bids against the incumbent senator.1 It was the perfect set-up to drop and swap. Presto, hope you like Kurt Alme.
Missouri’s deadline extensions put an end to funny business
While the Show-Me State has had its share of primary election drama this cycle, Missourians never have to worry about a Daines-style bait and switch: it’s a mathematical impossibility.
If any candidate, incumbent or otherwise, withdraws from the running within the two-day span prior to the state’s filing deadline, filing re-opens for four whole days the following week. And just to be sure there are no shenanigans, aspiring candidates get an extra five days to file if an incumbent withdraws or is disqualified after the deadline but before officials lock in primary ballot lists.
With these backstops, parties, the press, and voters have a matter of days to vet candidates and uplift alternatives—not a matter of minutes. The Missouri Secretary of State announces when filing opens again after the deadline, and news outlets amplify the message. No smoke, no mirrors. Full transparency.
With a little more time, Montanans could have had their pick of A-list candidates
Two days before the deadline, US Representative Ryan Zinke also made a surprise announcement: he would not run for re-election in Montana’s 1st Congressional District. It may have been short notice, but it was still enough time to draw in a healthy slate of contenders, including Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen, conservative radio show host Aaron Flint, and “Doc” Olszewski, Zinke’s most formidable challenger from four years prior.
If Montana had the Missouri rule in place when Daines withdrew, Kurt Alme could still have been a primary participant. But with five extra days to coordinate, other Republican heavyweights could also have had their moment to make a case to the public, and Democrats might have called in one of their own statewide stars to contend for the open Senate seat.
Instead, Daines denied voters’ power to choose.
Thankfully, Montana lawmakers are not averse to refining the filing process. In 2025, Republican-led legislation trimmed 45 days off the candidate filing window. By opening a few of those days back up under specific circumstances—a last-minute withdrawal, death, or disqualification—legislators could close the drop-and-swap loophole in the 2027 session.
